Friday, 23 May 2014

Serie A - 2013-14

Moving into Italy and Serie A now, and the percentage of drawn matches in 2013-14 was the second highest across the top leagues, but at 23.7% was the lowest in Serie A in the last 10 years,

Backing the draw in every Serie A match would have cost you a small fortune, 38.48 points to be precise.

Even more than with Ligue 1, the Favourite-Longshot bias is nowhere to be seen; in fact the bias is reversed. Again, if we look at 380 matches in five groups of around 76 each, the draw returns break down as follows:
The only profitable quintile is the middle section, and the benchmark of sub 4.0 priced draws is comfortably beaten by the XX Draws which lost 'only' 11.15 points.

The Unders fared relatively well too. Backing the Under 2.5 goals in every match would have lost you 11.24 points, while the XX Draws backed as Unders made a loss of 3.13 points.

Next up, La Liga.

1 comment:

Jamie A said...

I'm not up to date with reading through your blog but I wonder if you could address something (you might have already done so).

There is the recurring theme of your XX draw selections being a bit 'unlucky' due to the decrease in draws across the various leagues this saeson - but I wonder where are these draws going and are they actually making your value selections a bit 'lucky'?