Wednesday 1 July 2015

Lacking Conviction

Martin returns service with these thoughts:

Nice post again, I saw that you changed the topic already to more serious problems. :-) I just want to discuss about your opinion at tennis markets. So you like to tell me, that is not possible to make any money in one of the most liquid and volatile markets for a part time trader? That surprises me. Here I think different, in my opinion you definitely overrate the court-siding. How he should know it better during a break time? If you are referring to the full timers... not all of them are genius and beside are a lot of average Johnny Punters around especially at big events.
You are the best example that you can make a side income with trading. You think is only possible at side markets like baseball or basketball?
About the scam... yes, he is active since six years. Police and authorities don't care about it, because they don't understand the case. They consider it like a loss at stock exchange. That's the loop hole for the scammer. Well for me this story is marked off. It was a hurtful loss, but there are more serious problems in life than lose a part of the yearly salary.
Topics come and go, and the Greek crisis was merely, for us anyway, a temporary diversion. As for my thoughts on trading tennis, yes I find it highly unlikely that a part-timer trader working from his flat can make a consistent profit. It defies logic. You may be at less of a disadvantage trading during breaks, but that doesn't mean you have an advantage. You need an edge to make a profit. Even if you are getting fair value (2.0) on a coin toss, the commission ensures that you will slowly lose money. Any full-timers who are not geniuses or who don't have fast data will soon not be full-timers, and silly money from Johnny Punter will be snapped up by the fast boys.

I suspect that Martin is really trying to convince himself rather than me, that a steady profit is possible from casually trading tennis. It's about the last place I would look to trade though. When I can tell who won the point before I see it on TV, it's time to move on. I have no desire to bet when the odds are stacked against me. Ironically the only reason I started betting again after a long hiatus was because of the in-play opportunities that exchanges betting provided, but the markets have matured. It used to be possible to lay ice hockey teams at 1.2 in the first period if they were trailing by two goals but Canadian snipers caused the delay to be increased and the liquidity died. It was that observation incidentally that made me realise that laying low in-play could be a profitable strategy. People are greedy. College football was great for a while - especially when people didn't know the overtime rules - but liquidity is dead these days. Markets either wise up, or dry up. I got lucky by discovering the exchanges back in 2004, a time when there were plenty of opportunities. It's not so easy now. I'm just glad I don't have a record of how much time I've spent on it!

The comment that "there are more serious problems in life than money" is very true. Important to maintain perspective, and if you betting sensibly and don't need to win to pay the bills, it's easy enough to do.

Finally on a personal note, Mrs. Cassini is doing some gloating after her nation's win over Germany in the Women's World Cup semi-Final. She did make me take a small interest at half-time, replying to my "where's our edge?" comment with "I'm American, and I'm a woman". Hard to argue with that logic. As for the "I'll give you the money if it loses"...

My turn tonight perhaps, although at ~1.5 to win outright, I think the USA are value.


Brulati said...

Difficult to convince you . Yes, perhaps I like to convince me with your support. :-)

Well, clear words about tennis and it sounds logic, because it's a mature market. Smaller niche markets can be better to find a "technical edge". At tennis you have to do it mostly with the knowledge and patterns of players and markets. That was also the reason, why copy&paste of the Sultan strategies didn't work for me. You have to find your own way. In my opinion is possible if you don't compete with the courtsiders. Perhaps is luck at the moment, but since some weeks I trade quite consistent in the green zone. Let's see, where the way goes...

Bafel said...

"When I can tell who won the point before I see it on TV, it's time to move on"

In my opinion, tennis markets have matured to a point where the only real edge is your ability to read the game in play. Pro tennis traders make consistent profits because they anticipate to changes of momentum and take good risk/reward prices . They couldn't care less who gets to see the points faster as long as there is sufficient time between points/games to enter/exit a trade.
Courtsiders feed from scalpers and mugs leaving unmatched bets between points. But these strategies are not workable anymore. Even nowadays mugs are getting smarter, and you will rarely see available money at volatile stages.
Im sick and tired of people on tweeter complaining about guys trading with fast pics etc, as if it was the reason why they aint making profits. I don’t know for other sports, but for tennis traders a courtsider is the least of your problems.

Unknown said...

I can see you have strong opinions on tennis trading, and please correct me if I’m wrong, but the gist of it is that tennis trading from home is not/cannot be profitable?

I don’t trade tennis but would be keen to hear your thoughts on other well known tennis traders such as and Peter Webb?