Friday, 17 February 2017

Amateur Hour

Tobias of Machine Betting had an interesting post this week in which he extols the virtues of automated betting. 

Read the post in full, it's short and to the point, but Tobias concludes with this:

My models are niche models, and they are really good in their niche. I consider this to be the only possibility for me to build successful models, if I would try to model all markets and all live situations I would probably have a poor losing model (being an amateur with limitations in time and money I would be outperformed by the bigger syndicates).
If I were to give you a few tips how to be successful in your model building:
  • Model one or few markets, and focus on a certain events/situations there. 
  • Settle with a low ROI, and maximize number of bets instead.
  • Keep your costs low, don’t pay a lot of money for data, software or other. Your profit will vanish!
Great advice. I'm almost shocked at reading such common sense and logical thinking in a blog other than my own or James'
Someone who recognises their limitations as an amateur! I actually prefer the term 'part-timer' because amateur has some negative connotations to it implying a less than dedicated approach, which is far from true in Tobias' case. 

He's amateur only in the sense that it's not his full-time job or his primary income stream. Understanding that in many markets you are competing against people with more resources than yourself is key.

The three tips Tobias offers are worthy of note too. 

1 comment:

TobiasB said...

Thanks for the encouraging words! Did some more thinking on the subject, and concluded that the "low cost" advantage we part timers have over the syndicates is our huge asset and therefor should be handled with biggest possible care. I cant even image the amount they need to turn and the roi they need to produce to finance courtsiders, analyst, tools and more. Puahhh! / Tobias