Thursday, 7 September 2017

Double Error

Although there are upsides to it, the downside of following @Statsbet on Twitter is that several of his re-tweets result in despair and a descent into the dark world of depression.

To clarify, the fact that the tweets in question have been re-tweeted is because they are ridiculous and nonsensical, and Statsbet recognizes this, but plenty of other less intelligent followers of these accounts that presumably are being led astray.

Why anyone of sound mind would follow the tips of a complete stranger is beyond me. The problem is that many people are not of sound mind, or at least are seriously challenged when it comes to logic and / or mathematics. 

It’s also noticeable that even though English isn’t everyone’s first language, 140 characters can be a constraint, and haste can lead to errors, the number of spelling and grammatical errors suggests a low average intellect. If I had a penny for every dangling modifier…

Today’s gems included the claim of tipping two winners, both at 9/1, which was followed up with a Tweet stating that:

Presumably the account in question wasn’t brave enough either, or they would have been confused about the payout at 99/1, which is the correct price of a double with two winners at 9/1. 

Rather embarrassing that a supposed expert betting account would be unable to calculate the odds on a double, and also noticeable that not one reply pointed out this glaring error.

The only double paying at 81/1 would be one comprised of winners at evens and 40/1.

Another clueless account tweeted today:
This claim is quite astonishing in its demonstration of complete ignorance about probability and logic, although it makes no claims about being expert.

"Last thing"? That implies there's at least one other thing that has been considered, but I'm not sure that's so. 

Any bookies that are “wrong pretty often” would soon be out of business. 

A true 10/1 shot will win one time in eleven. A winner at long odds doesn’t mean the bookie was wrong. That’s not how probability works!

Fortunately the account in question has the grand total of four followers, so little harm was done sharing such “wisdom”.

Skeeve commented on my Calling Paul post, writing:

“Everything has to be public with you youngsters. :)”
While I am usually a quiet, shy and private person, it’s been a while since I was referred to as a “youngster” but I'll take it.

I was going to include ‘retiring’ in that above list of adjectives, but as Paul appears to be holding off for now, so my retirement is delayed.

Skeeve - How about John, George and Ringo? – did any of them sign up? Darren? Steve? Tim? Jim? Gary? Andy? Bob? Rich? Pete? Fred? Matthew? Mark? Luke? Don? Uncle Tom Cobley? 

Jesus? Looks like I’m going to need a miracle.


Trader 247 said...

Wouldn't Jesus have his own tipster service? He'd be well placed for insider information, if reports of his connection with an all knowing source are to be believed. I doubt he'd bother trying to get a bet on as no bookie would allow him an account, even those that did take his deposit as a new account wouldn't pay out, claiming 'act of nature' or some other obscure rule (country of residence?). I suppose he could use an exchange but the potential from tipping would be a better focus of his energies, in my opinion.

skeeve said...

Both Ringo and Jesus decided to pass unfortunately. :) Still no word from Paul either. :( I can't complain though as I still have more followers than that brilliant twitter guy who can't calculate the price of a double. :)