Friday, 8 September 2017

Handicap v Money Line

The 2017 NFL season kicked off last night with the New England Patriots at -8 a value lay (based on historical prices) at a pre-game 1.24 versus the Kansas City Chiefs.

Eight point favourites over the past ten seasons have an implied price of around 1.3, (see above). Playing the Money Line when the implied odds are out of line with the historical record, can be rewarding.

On my Double Error post from yesterday, Trader 24/7 had this to say:
Wouldn't Jesus have his own tipster service? He'd be well placed for insider information, if reports of his connection with an all knowing source are to be believed. I doubt he'd bother trying to get a bet on as no bookie would allow him an account, even those that did take his deposit as a new account wouldn't pay out, claiming 'act of nature' or some other obscure rule (country of residence?). I suppose he could use an exchange but the potential from tipping would be a better focus of his energies, in my opinion.
If Jesus has his own tipping service, I'm sure Statsbet will soon discover it and allow us all to share in its wisdom. Country of residence is likely Mexico, and if you are ever incarcerated there, the phrase "Jesus loves you" is not something you want to hear from your cell mate.  

Skeeve popped back with the sad, but not wholly unexpected news, that:
Both Ringo and Jesus decided to pass unfortunately. :) Still no word from Paul either. :( I can't complain though as I still have more followers than that brilliant twitter guy who can't calculate the price of a double. :)
Such a basic error which really makes one sceptical of the claim from the account that:
Either they made this "81/1" double an exception, or their record keeping leaves much to be desired. 

Accurate record keeping reminds me of this tale I regaled you with back in December 2013:
...the mother of a good friend of mine back in the 1980s used to enjoy a Saturday flutter on the horses at her local bookmaker in Coulsdon. Back in those days, winnings would be paid out in a small sealed brown envelope, and on one occasion she arrived home after collecting her winnings only to find on opening it that she had been paid out too much.

She returned to the shop to complain.

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