Monday, 4 December 2017

Cricketing Crunchyfrog

One of the rare interesting threads on the Betfair Forum is the long running Cricket Test matches thread showing the results of backing or laying favourites, underdogs, second favourites and the draw. 

Initiated by crunchyfrog, possibly not his real name, there are now 409 matches in the books, and three more currently in progress, documenting almost ten years of results.

The results to date on each outcome are:

I have no idea how results are settled in the event of outcomes being joint, or how the lay results are computed, but a strategy of laying the draw and / or laying the second favourite, appears to be worthy of further attention.

A commendable effort on crunchy's part. Not many of us have the discipline and patience to track these things for so long.

By way of comparison, the profitable strategies in the English Premier League for the five completed seasons 2012-17 (1900 matches) for which we have Pinnacle's Closing Prices, are laying the draw (+3.14 points), backing the underdog (+9.32 points) and laying the second favourite (+40.93 points). 

With the FA Cup this weekend, no updates for the League Two Aways, and with the College Football regular season over, there were no selections here either. With Army currently underdogs by 3 at Navy next week, we may have one final selection before another very profitable season is complete. 

The NFL selections are still in play, but it looks like a 2-3 weekend. 

I will be travelling for business over the next two to three weeks, so December will not the be most prolific of months for posts, but with bonuses and salary increases in the works, it's probably not in my best interests to tell my boss I want to stay home.

When I say 'travelling for business', more accurately I will be visiting staff and coincidentally timing my visits to each site with their Xmas parties...   

No comments: