Tuesday 8 May 2018

Away We Go

The 2017 part of the 2016-17 season (-13.87 points) had hinted it was coming, but the value long offered on League Two Aways has well and truly dissipated this season just ended, with a loss of 62.91 points. Hopefully no one saw this system through to the end this year. As I wrote almost exactly a year ago with this scenario in mind: 
All trends will end, and it would be folly to build up 100 points of profit over a couple of years, and then see it all disappear. How much you take off the table is a personal choice, but waiting for the trend to return can be lengthy and costly.
Even backing the Away teams at the mythical maximum price every time would have resulted in a loss this season.  The number of Away wins was the fewest in this Division since 2010-11, a full 24 fewer than 2016-17, and 32 fewer than 2015-16.  As I've mentioned before, a simple 'strategy' like this won't work for long, but it had a good run.  
Following Away teams in the National League has similarly been profitable, and in fact is now more profitable over the six years of Pinnacle data than its elder brother League Two. Small profits were made this season using Pinnacle's prices and a large profit from backing at the impossible maximum every time.

Although the Premier League isn't yet finished, there are no more Big 6 matches and here are the final numbers for backing the Draw in those games:
Manchester City featured in no draws at all, and the season has ended on a losing run of 10. I'll probably write more on the Draw in the summer when the season is finished. 

Continuing with the Away theme, forewarning that after the West Bromwich Albion game on Sunday, I shall be headed away to the Lake District and Scotland for a couple of weeks but even if there's no new content, there's plenty in the archives to keep you all busy.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Are Pinnacle odds opening, closing or the ones you have taken personally?