Wednesday, 2 May 2018

April Shorties Update

At the start of April, I wrote:

The table above shows the results of backing short priced (1.5 or shorter) MLB favourites during the opening month of the season. The returns are calculated using the American method of betting to win 100 units.
This season the trend repeated again, for the eighth consecutive season, with the updated returns below:
No less than 45 of those selections were where the opponent is one of the eight teams currently on track to lose 90 games this season. The MLB is usually more competitive than this, (according to the article linked to, it's not since 1969 that there have been this many no-hopers) and an increase in the number of 'easy' wins for stronger teams means that if the market is slow to adjust, as it appears to be, there are profits in following hot favourites, at least for a while.

As I mentioned, the returns are calculated using the US method of betting to win 100 units, but for comparison, using a one unit level stake, the April returns were +9.50 points and an ROI of 14.2%.
Perhaps of interest to some is that the record number of 13 Away qualifiers had an ROI of 34.4%. In the five seasons from 2011-2015, there were a total of just two away selections, but in recent years the number has increased dramatically. Their full April record is 22-4, +13.90 points and an ROI of 24.6%.

Our attention now turns to May... 

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