Sunday, 12 August 2018

It's Over, For Overs

Some of you may recall the T-Bone System, and I'm aware that at least one astute reader is following me on it, but there was some excitement a couple of seasons about the Overs in such matches.

The excitement wasn't shared by either myself or fellow baseball investor Tony, writing at the time:

The creator of the original T-Bone System, I'll call it T-Bone Raw, was very excited about the outcome of backing Overs as an additional revenue stream alongside the Money Line and Run Line returns. Whilst both the Money Line and Run Line profits are steady enough in the last five seasons, the profitability of the Overs component is something new this season, and rather a mystery.
Tony emailed me on this topic to say:
I always like a situation where both the SU and the RL are pretty much in synch - think it adds strength to the finding.
Personally, not keen on the Overs here - all the profit seems, I think a bit strangely, to come from when the total has been set high - in direct contrast to the earlier years when overs did better on low total lines. Quite a change round that I cannot get my head around.
The 2016 season ended with the Overs winning 62% of the T-Bone games, which was certainly interesting, but there was no apparent reason to get too excited, but it was something to keep an eye on perhaps.

I'm sure I returned to the topic in 2017, pretty sure I haven't in 2018, but I will today as it appears the pendulum has fully swung the other way with Unders now the order of the day. As an indicator for how tough the Run Lines in baseball are to beat long term, of the 1,359 T-Bone qualifiers from 2007, the Overs have won 646, the Unders 648 with the other 65 resulting in Pushes.

Unders this season are currently at 59.8%. The Totals bet was never part of the T-Bone system, but if you're tracking results, it never hurts to look at other markets.

The good news is that the T-Bone continues to perform after a less than exciting 2017 season.

The bad news is that this is a system that loses its efficacy after the All-Star break, as I mentioned last month, which is actually perfect timing with football and American football kicking in (pun intended).

The EPL Draws got off to a winning start this season with Wolverhampton Wanderers and Everton coming in yesterday. I hope at least some of you were with me.

And now the really bad news. 

I am off again for work tomorrow on a short notice trip, but at least I'm clocking up the miles and points for trips and car rentals on my own time. After updating them yesterday, I realised they actually have value which should be included in my net-worth spreadsheet. 

After that, I will be spending two weeks with my son and youngest grand-daughter, followed quite possibly by a surgery and its associated downtime the following week or two, so I may be gone from a while. 

Read up on Small 'Dogs in American Football if you're bored, need money, or both. Actually, if you need money, the last thing you should be is bored. Enjoy the rest of summer. If the surgery doesn't work, enjoy the rest of your lives. It's shorter than you think. 

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