Friday 8 July 2016

Total Conundrum

The creator of the original T-Bone System, I'll call it T-Bone Raw, was very excited about the outcome of backing Overs as an additional revenue stream alongside the Money Line and Run Line returns.

Whilst both the Money Line and Run Line profits are steady enough in the last five seasons, the profitability of the Overs component is something new this season, and rather a mystery.

Tony emailed me on this topic to say:
I always like a situation where both the SU and the RL are pretty much in synch - think it adds strength to the finding.

Personally, not keen on the Overs here - all the profit seems, I think a bit strangely, to come from when the total has been set high - in direct contrast to the earlier years when overs did better on low total lines.Quite a change round that I cannot get my head around.
He's not the only one. What Tony has noticed is that over the last ten seasons, backing Overs with this System fared better when the Total was low from 2007-2010 but since then has performed better when the Total is higher.
This wouldn't be so odd if the number of runs being scored was on the increase, but they have steadily declined from an average of 4.8 per game in 2007 to 4.07 in 2014 with only one blip in that sequence which was an increase in 2012 to 4.32 from the previous season's 4.28.

However, we are now on the up again - in 2015 there were 4.25 runs per game and currently this season we are sitting on 4.51. We're only a little over half-way through this season, but if the 4.51 number holds, that would represent an increase of 10.81% in two seasons.
Average Runs Per Game 
Have the sportsbooks been caught off-guard? Forgetting all about T-Bone for a moment, it's interesting to see that Overs performing better against higher totals isn't just true against a subset of Raw T-Bone games. Had you blindly backed Overs this season in all games, then in games where the total was 7.5 or less you would be down 55.21 points, but on lines where the total is 8 or more, you'd be laughing all the way to the bank +54.75 points! That is quite a discrepancy and the sportsbooks (overall) have it about right, as usual. The 'overall' is key though.

I need to look into this more. MLB is a league of two sets of rules, but has inter-league matches too, so it gets complicated. Then there are the Rockies, plus there are monthly changes affecting baseball, for example in April:
The temperature is lower, which tends to suppress scoring by reducing batted-ball speed and distance and, by extension, BABIP and home run rate. On the other hand, the hitters are “ahead” of the pitchers early in the year, which tends to inflate scoring by giving batters more favorable walk and strikeout rates. The net effect is that April scoring tends to be slightly higher than the full-season rate.
Tony also pointed out that since 2012, in terms of T-Bone wins, the prize (a box of T-Bones perhaps) goes to our old friend Clayton Kershaw with 16 from 22 starts, and that 20 of the 30 teams have qualifies as a T-Bone pick in that time - the one exception? Minnesota Twins. Not a surprise that this season, it is the Cubs leading the way with 12 selections.

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