Apologies for the lack of posts in recent weeks. As some of you will know from Twitter, I had an accident at the start of the year which means I shall be mostly laid up in bed or on the couch until mid-March, neither location being conducive to creating new posts. The phone works just fine for brief entries such as this one, but it’ll be a while until normal service is resumed. Surgery is this week, then recovery can begin, all being well. Stay safe.
Monday, 25 January 2021
Wednesday, 6 January 2021
When 2 + 2 = 5
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Artwork by Joe, age 41 3/4 |
Georgia Arbs
A rather unusual opportunity in the markets surrounding the Georgia Senate elections, of which there were two - one Special and one Regular.
Friday, 1 January 2021
Au Revoir 2020
2020 has certainly been an interesting year. Aside from my Mum's passing in April, which appeared to be non-COVID related, and the continued slow and steady decline in my 93 year old Dad's health, I have to say that this year has been pretty good to me.
Tuesday, 29 December 2020
Inevitable Profits
It was not the best of weeks for followers of the NFL Small Road Dogs system with the three selections all losing. I'm beginning to regret making my comment last week regarding the remaining selections that:
Even if all seven lost, we'd still have a healthy ROI.
The ROI drops to 16.15% with one week, and probably three selections, remaining in the season.
If you're following the Small Road Dogs in the NBA as I suggested last week, you're probably thanking me, in spirit at least, given the start to the season they have made - i.e. six winners from seven selections, with four more over the next couple of days.In the Premier League we had plenty of Draws, which isn't unusual in the December part of the holiday season. Blindly backing the Draw gives a return of 3.78%, while limiting yourself to "Close" matches increases the ROI to 30% since 2000.
I'll update the Draw numbers in a couple of days once Wednesdays games are complete.
A few days ago, I was kindly sent a copy of a book called "Inevitable Profits" written by Dave Holdsworth which he says:was inspired by David Sumpter's book [Soccermatics] and your blog
Dave's approach is to:
"look for systematic bias in the odds. We can do this by modelling the betting market rather than the underlying sport. Instead of trying to predict which team will win we can try to understand under what circumstances the bookmakers’ odds are skewed away from true, showing us where to bet."
Readers of this blog will understand why such an approach is music to my ears.
I've looked at results by month before, and noticed some interesting trends, but Dave inspired me to drill down still further, and while my interest remains primarily on the Draw, I'll share some findings in the next few days.
With the US markets open today, no doubt many of you are happy with adding another 1.92% to your balances as Tesla climbed again. Just three days remain in 2020 and I'm pretty sure this will be another category ending the year with a healthy ROI!
Friday, 25 December 2020
Tampa Raptors
I mentioned yesterday that paying attention to Time Zones in the NBA can make a difference to your bottom line. By way of example, backing Small Road 'Dogs ATS travelling across two or three time zones since 2015 have an ROI of -4.39%, compared with an ROI of 6.27% when playing within one time zone of home.
Wednesday, 23 December 2020
Zoning Out
After Sunday's shock win by the New York Jets in Los Angeles, we didn't have to wait long for another double digit upset with the Cincinnati Bengals win over the play-off bound Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. The Bengals were getting 13 points, and won by 10.
However I do own some individual stocks, the most recent portfolio addition being that of Tesla last November.
The trigger was seeing articles about the company being the most shorted stock in the USA. Shorting stocks is a risky business, and the more I read, the more it seemed that there are several misconceptions about the company. I also happen to like CEO Elon Musk's sarcastic, flippant, sometimes rude, approach to those trying to spread a false narrative about him or his company.
So it was interesting to read on Teslarati.com that:
Tesla short-sellers are effectively admitting defeat after the company’s first trading days in the S&P 500 Index after new data from Ortex Analytics shows that short interest hit record lows.
At one time, TSLA stock was one the most-shorted stocks on Wall Street, but the company’s record year has had bears rethinking their strategy to put money on the downfall of the automaker, which has never really occurred.
Ortex Analytics has new research that shows that bets against Tesla have fallen to numbers that haven’t been seen since 2017. After an estimated $28.5 billion in losses, Tesla shorts are calling it quits on being bearish toward the stock.
Monday, 21 December 2020
Toss-Ups and Teslanaires
After almost seven weeks stuck on just four selections for the season, we had not just one "Toss-Up" Draw selection but two this weekend, with Newcastle United v Fulham delivering for followers.
The Away team was favourite in both matches, and since 2000 these selections have an ROI of 22.8% from 264 selections.The reason Tesla stock is down Monday is probably because some index funds have already bought Tesla shares. With the buying done, there is a greater chance of some post-indexation dip might occur. It’s happened in the past when other stocks have been added to the S&P 500—although Tesla stock always seems to defy convention. Shares are, after all, up about 750% over the past year.
A 6.49% drop wasn't what I was hoping though, but with with my gains at over 1,000% as of Friday's close, I think I can handle it.
The volatility of Tesla's stock price is likely to lead to the same in the S&P 500 Index, with an $11.11 change in stock price equating to a one point move for the Index.
There was an article on Bloomberg at the end of last week, reporting on "Teslanaires", those people whose holdings are now, or were, worth over a million dollars.Now Smith has joined the ranks of the “Teslanaires,” as some of the company’s investors call themselves, with a holding that he says has ballooned to over $1 million, fueled by a rally of nearly 731% this year as of Friday’s close.
If the company is to become a trillion dollar company, as many experts predict, the stock price will hit four figures, unless there is another split, and if it's to become a $2 trillion company as at least one investor predicts, the upside is even bigger. One to hold.