Thunder Rolls

I've been a little distracted after all the excitement of May. My father-in-law is struggling with his health right now, after a knee replacement surgery that has not gone well. It needs to be re-done but first an an ongoing unidentified bacterial infection needs to resolved. 

My wife and I are now in California providing moral support, although the latter falls mostly on her.  I do have a 50th school reunion to attend in July so I will be leaving her for a while next week while I climb up Helvellyn - weather permitting - for the first time since 1973 before meeting up with at least one of the two friends I did that climb with. 

With my enthusiasm through the roof after the club's first major trophy, I've also been spending literally dozens of hours updating my Crystal Palace spreadsheet which has grown somewhat from my original goal. 

It now includes every single team lineup for the professional club dating back to the 1905-06 Southern League Second Division and through to the end of last season, which is exactly 5,201 matches and 61,953 player entries, not to mention the 7,252 goal scorers, and I've added two new categories to accommodate the Community Shield and Europa League games.

It's all very exciting and I am putting my retirement to good use, but once again, sports investing has remained a secondary activity, and I still need to update the 'official' results for the 2024-25 football systems.

In the NBA Finals, it's a Game 7 tonight - Oklahoma City Thunder versus Indiana Pacers.

Neither team has ever won the NBA Finals, although the franchise now in Oklahoma City did win one as the Seattle SuperSonics back in 1979.

The last Finals Game 7 was in 2016, and this was a rare win for the Road (Away) team which has won just 4 of 19 and just once in the seven games since since 1978.

Game 7s in the Final are a lot rarer now than they used to be. 

In the 1950s there were five. In the 1960s there were four.  In the 1970s three, the 1980s two, and just one each in the 1990s and the noughties. 

Looking at 'recent' spreads (i.e. those this century), in the most recent Game 7 (2016) the Cleveland Cavaliers were 5-point underdogs against the Golden State Warriors, and they won the game by four points.

In the 2013 Finals, the Miami Heat were 6-point favorites against the San Antonio Spurs and covered winning by seven points.

In 2010 the Los Angeles Lakers were 7-point favorites against the Boston Celtics  and won by four, while in 2005 Finals the Spurs won by seven as 5.5-point favorites against the Detroit Pistons. 

The spread is currently 7 and with the Thunder seemingly taking it very easy in Game 6 - they lost by 17 after being down by 31 at one point - I'm expecting them to repeat their Game 7 performance of the Conference Semifinals this year when they easily defeated (by 32 points) the Denver Nuggets in another home Game 7. 

May 2025 - A Month to Remember

I took the liberty of titling my last post 'Memorable May' and while it would have been memorable even with different outcomes, the month turned out to be one of the best of my life, and that is written with no exaggeration.

My son's wedding went off without a hitch at the Gorse Hill Hotel in Woking, and he and his bride are currently honeymooning in our ancestral homeland of Italy, and of course after supporting Crystal Palace for 58 years, they finally won a major trophy, and I am now prepared to concede that the Zenith Data Systems Cup was not really that major.

The stag weekend was in Cardiff - some drinking, darts, and rugby (Bristol v Bath) were all activities I could keep up with the younger ones at, the bubble football, not so much. At 68, trying to stand up without using your arms while enclosed in a giant plastic bubble isn't too easy but I survived and wasn't one of the two casualties of the weekend who were unable to process their alcohol the normal way. My son (also not one of the casualties) spent Saturday walking around Cardiff and watching rugby dressed as Woody from Toy Story, a look he carried off quite well I must say.

I then spent a few days in North Devon, walking to the top of the Little and Great Hangman hills near Combe Martin and staying by the harbour in Ilfracombe. The low point was finding out that Ye Olde Globe in Berrynarbor (established in 1675) is now closed after 350 years.

I also took my wife to the New Forest for a few days. She'd never been before, and I'd actually not been for many years, and it's really rather nice there.

Back to the FA Cup Final and my son and his daughter were both at Covent Garden and later the game with me, and with the latter having seen her first match in September, I fear the bar has been set a little high for her future years of support.

Both the wedding and the FA Cup Final were days I shall never forget. I was at the 1990 Final and Replay, as well as the 2016 Final and having been close to winning on both occasions, and playing one of the top clubs, it was with hope rather than expectation that I went to the Final. 

It was only when the clock showed 30 seconds left of stoppage time and Palace had a goal kick that I allowed myself to believe that we were actually going to win the FA Cup.

Tears were shed I am not ashamed to say. Whatever happens in the future, this will be the only time Palace will win their first major trophy and it meant everything. Even just writing this makes me emotional.

A thank you to Peter, Hikbuzz and Weirimdi for taking the time to comment on my last post or send me a message.

Hikbuzz wrote in early May:

Take it easy Cassini and have a great May

and after the FA Cup win followed up with:

Congrats on the FA Cup win, must have been so great to witness this first hand. I hope to emulate this myself as I am going to Munich on the 31st to support PSG in our quest for what would be our first Champions League win!

Much appreciated, and I am sure he enjoyed his first Champions League win, which was a little more comfortable than Palace's!

Given how good PSG have looked this season, I'm not sure 17th placed Tottenham Hotspur will be too excited about playing the Super Cup match next season.

Peter wrote:

Congrats to Crystal Palace and great to see your long term loyalty rewarded.
I'm sure you're still enjoying it. Not exactly the result we Sacred Manuscript subscribers were hoping for but ... oh well!

While I am still enjoying it, it is true that major finals often offer value for the Draw, but none of UEFA's tournaments hit this season, and only the Community Shield for the English matches. Oh well indeed... 

Did someone mention the Community Shield? Liverpool v Crystal Palace in August, the latter club with a chance to add a second major trophy to their collection... 

With the football season now over, I'll be working on the updates for the Sacred Manuscript. 

Peter identified a possible conflict with the recommendations for the Europa League Final (did I mention that Palace will be competing in this tournament neat season?) and the Europa Conference League Final and I'll make sure I clear this up. Thank you Peter for your input.

Regarding my minor skin cancer issue, Weirimdi also commented:

I wish you all the best. As someone who works in cancer research I can tell you that early discovery leads to very good outcome.

I am now required to have a full skin check every six months, which is a very minor inconvenience given the upside of any early discoveries as Weirimdi says. 

Back to Palace for a moment, and one of my long time friends who was a little older than me and a Palace supporter since the early 1960's passed away before the Semi-Final from prostate cancer, so get that 'finger up the botty' as one of my friends puts it, although these days that's not routine procedure. But get it checked anyway! 

Again, thank you for the comment Wierimdi, which is much appreciated.

It'll be a busy month for the Sacred Manuscript.

As I mentioned, the football season is now over following Oldham Athletic's win over Southend United yesterday.

In the USA, the NHL Stanley Cup Finals and the NBA Finals (both best of seven) both begin this week.

On Wednesday the NHL Final opens with the Florida Panthers playing the Edmonton Oilers who are hoping to become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993 and are favourites to do so.

On Thursday in the NBA, the Finals begin with the Oklahoma City Thunder big favourites to win against the Indiana Pacers.

The WNBA is also is full flow now, as well as MLB of course. 

As I fully anticipated, May was not a good month for my weight. Getting out of my routine with wedding related activities, football matches, catching up with old friends meaning I drank beer on 27 days, and a lot on a few of these, means I am back to where I was at the end of last year. June will be a lot different.

Financially, May wasn't such a great month either. I helped my son out with his wedding bar tab and upgraded his gift from the toaster I was hoping to get away with, and my former employer's stock price continued to decline to the point where none of my options are now in the money. 

Some individual holdings had a good month to help limit the damage - Tesla was up 23%, Boeing was up 13% and Palantir up 11% but with the news that Warren Buffett is retiring as Berkshire Hathaway's CEO at the end of 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price slipped by 5.5%. 

Overall I was down 1.8% on the month, the fourth consecutive losing month which is a first for me and hopefully a last, but probably not. Good luck to you all in June. 

Memorable May

Just a quick update to say that I had to have a minor procedure for some skin cancer which wasn't great news but could have been a lot worse, and that I shall be away from home for the next four weeks with a hectic schedule which now includes a trip to Wembley for the FA Cup Final. Third time lucky I hope, as Crystal Palace have been my club since my first game in April 1967, and to win the FA Cup would be very special. 

I'll be at the Nottingham Forest game tomorrow with my son and one of my granddaughters, before heading to a secret destination for his stag weekend. It's a secret from him, although I know where it will be. A few days in North Devon after that, then the Final, another home game versus Wolves, my son's wedding day and finally a few days in the Kent countryside at my sister's place to unwind from it all. 

May will be a memorable month, and hopefully better than April which was not a good month overall - either financially or health-wise - although the monetary losses were put into perspective by the latter and isolated to my former employer reporting results which the market did not like, and as a result most of my options are now currently out of the money. Hopefully the market has overreacted, but a six figure loss on paper isn't great in retirement. 

My son's wedding gift has been downgraded to a toaster.

By the time I return, the football season will be over, the NBA and NHL seasons will be almost over, and we'll have some MLB data to take a look at so for sports betting updates check back in a month or so. Other life events mean that betting won't be top of my agenda for a while, but good luck to those of you for whom it is. 

Country Roads, Eggs and Baskets

I managed to survive the six-state road trip with my son mentioned in my previous post. After flying into New Orleans, Louisiana and spending a couple of days there we drove to Savannah, Georgia stopping overnight in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, Nashville, Tennessee, Asheville, North Carolina, and Charleston, South Carolina. We were able to catch the College Basketball Championship game between Florida and Houston in Nashville shortly before we were hauled up on stage to sing along to, in my case, Take Me Home, Country Roads and for my son, The Gambler. 

All in all a great trip although it was disturbing that I was regularly the oldest patron in the bar, with another highlight being the announcement somewhere that someone was celebrating their 70th birthday which made me feel quite young. The last photo on the final night in Savannah was taken at 2:36am so I kept up pretty well I feel! 

My Fitbit and Oura metrics took a hit, as did my scales and wallet, but all bar my wallet are slowly returning to normal. 

The financial markets were extremely volatile while we were away and it was one of those trips I returned home from with no idea whether I was up or down, but unfortunately I was down. Tesla was bouncing around all over the place, up more than 23% on Wednesday as we drove through the Hurricane Helene damaged roads into Asheville, and my former company also had a good run which helped to offset some of the broader market losses. 

I met with my Financial Advisor on Monday and was pleased to hear that I've not messed up (yet) although he felt I was a little aggressive on growth stocks and should consider moving some money into dividend stocks, which is something I was already doing and have mentioned here before, but maybe I'm not doing it fast enough for his liking. 

Back to College Basketball and with the season over, we can look at how that Sacred Manuscript systems. The Small Favourites had a 52-55 losing record ATS for a small loss, but when limited to the top six conferences, the record was 9-8 but the totals had a losing 7-10 record. 

The Conference Tournament System fared much better with a 71-66 record, and the NCAA Tournament results were even better at 22-12 making it a profitable season overall. 

The NBA Regular Season has also ended, with the Playoffs starting today. With Road Favourites not performing as expected this season, we're looking at a loss overall but the Totals Systems have been profitable, notably the Overs on High Totals which delivered a 123-110-1 record. More to come when the playoffs are over but I think one lesson might well be not to base too many systems on one parameter, even if it has been a profitable one over the years. Something about 'eggs and baskets' which applies to more than just NBA betting.  

Factors of Seventeen

While it may seem counter-intuitive, one side effect of retirement has been a reduction in the amount of time available for blogging. In my 'working' from home days, it was easy to find time between meetings for some research or blogging, but with no such constraints these days I'm spending more of my time out of the house.

However, the blog did mark its 17th anniversary a few days ago, and has recently been selected "as one of the Top 100 Sports Betting Blogs on the web".  

While I claim on Twitter to be the "Author of the world's number one sports trading blog Green All Over", the assertion is made with "tongue-firmly-in-cheek" and while I should perhaps be disappointed that I only rank at number 34 in this list, in all seriousness it's quite inspiring to be noticed, and with the added bonus that 34 is a Fibonacci number.

The blog is accurately described as:

an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me.

I'm a little concerned that Daily Betting Blog from my old friend Steve makes the list at number 59 despite not having posted since 2021, but who am I to question the criteria used to determine the list? 

As others have noted, it's not easy coming up with content after this long, and while I have no plans to stop blogging, it's clear that as life is changing for me, it's perhaps not the priority it once was. 

Later this week I'm off to New Orleans for a ten day road trip across the United States with my son, a final father / son road trip before he becomes a married man in May, a month that will not be focused on betting but on family and trying to keep up with a younger generation on the stag weekend. My ability to drink and recover is not what it used to be. Actually, the drinking part is fine, but at 68 it's the recovery that now takes so much longer. 

I just now realised that I have been blogging for 25% of my life!

To sports and the 2025 MLB season started for the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers a little earlier than most teams with two games in Tokyo, both won by the Dodgers, but for most teams the season started last Thursday.

The College Basketball season is reaching its conclusion with the NCAA tournament to decide the National Champions down to its last four teams. It's rather more boring than usual with few surprises, and a Final Four of all number one seeds (each of the four regions is seeded).  

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this has only happened once before, in 2008.

The Sacred Manuscript system for this tournament currently has an impressive 22-12 record ATS, although in the Conference Tournaments, the system was only slightly profitable with a 71-66 record. 

The NBA regular season is also winding down with the playoffs starting in mid-April. Overall it hasn't been the best of seasons with Road Favourites having their worst season since 1998. 

It's better news in the NHL which is also in the final stage of its regular season, with the core system having an official ROI of 4.3%, and the Embarrassed and Rested system up 13.6% - numbers that are easily beatable. The "Tough Guys" system hasn't fared so well, with a 28-29 record so far and an ROI of -8.5%.

February Flops

February wasn't the best of months. Sports betting saw a miniscule 0.7% return, which at least was positive, but overall the month ranked as the 194th best in nominal terms out of the 197 since I started tracking, and the 184th best in percentage terms, which is a more positive way of saying that the month was one of the worst ever. 

Tesla lost 27.6% in the month, and is currently down 33% YTD, while Bitcoin lost 17.6% in February and is down 2.8% YTD. 

I did mention in the January summary that: 

As a new retiree, I'm still getting used to the new world of no salary, but if returns on investments could be like January all the time, I'll be a happy man.

Along with being a retiree comes the experience of having gone through a few roller-coaster rides in my investment career, and I'm well aware that it can be a bumpy road. Tesla will be interesting. The CEO has closely (to put it mildly) aligned himself with the current administration, which is not usually a great idea for a CEO, and leading the DOGE effort can't be anything but a distraction from running Tesla. 

With Tesla importing around 25% of their components including some from China, a tariffs war is not going to be helpful. Then there is the issue of the Elon Musk "brand" hurting demand for Teslas in Europe (a 26% drop in sales in February and likely a bigger drop when March's numbers are released) plus the competition in China and Asia from BYD and Tesla is looking like a sell. 

I reduced my position slightly at $433.63 on 17th January which was a good move, but then I bought the shares back on the 23rd at $411.75 which wasn't a good move, given that I could buy them back today at around $263.  

As I've mentioned before, most of my money is invested in low cost broad index funds with these individual share holdings just me playing with money I can afford to lose, although I'd prefer it didn't come to that. I'm planning to continue holding Tesla for now, given that I'm playing with house money after getting in back in 2017.

In the Premier League last season, backing the draw in Big 6 matches was a profitable strategy with an ROI of 104% from the 30 matches, but so far this season hasn't been as profitable with a loss of 10% after the 22 matches played so far. 

The broader strategy of simply opposing Home teams in Big 6 matches rather than target the unpredictable Draw does continue to be lucrative though, with last season's 24% ROI up slightly to 30% this season. Sunday sees Manchester United play Arsenal. 

Half-Term Report

It's half-term for the arena sports of NHL and NBA in the USA and as promised here is the half-time review of how the systems in the Sacred Manuscript have fared do far. 

The NHL broke-up first and aren't back until the weekend, while the NBA has a shorter break with play resuming tonight (Wednesday) with the regular season ending in less than two months on April 13th. 

In the NHL, the first basic system is off to a great start with an ROI of 10.9%, with the Puck Line bets with an even more impressive 32.2%. 

I've included the Over/Under for these matches because the Under shows a big edge so far this season. Historically, Unders have a slight edge winning at 53.8%, but the increase this season is interesting. 

For the more selective system the results are a little disappointing, but still profitable and the Unders trend here is even stronger: 

In theory, and certainly over the longer term, these more selective bets will have a higher ROI, but the reduced volume means that variance is a factor in the short term, and 15 nets is very much short term. 

For the second system the results are not as good. Long term (i.e. since 2006) the ROI on these are 8.2% and 15.1% but so far this season we are down 22.7% (from 60 selections) and 2.9% for the more selective system although this has only had 13 selections to date.

The third main system is down 11.5% (from 40 selections) with the more selective offshoot up 49%, which sounds more exciting than it is given that there has literally only been a handful of selections so far. Again, Unders at 59.5% are coming in at a higher rate than expected this season.

Moving to the NBA and the results are so far very disappointing. Most of the Spread systems are based on the premise that certain Away teams are often value, but this season the winning percentage (46.4%) is the lowest since records began in 1995.

This basic system currently has an ROI of -9.4% from 334 selections and it's not much comfort that factoring in the previous result for both teams this into a 12.1% ROI since this is just 54 selections. 

The Totals systems are at least performing decently so far, with the 'Overs on High Totals' system hitting at 55.5% while the 'Alpha Unders' has a losing 28-29 record to date, but in the hunt to be profitable at least. 

College Basketball doesn't have a mid-season break, and selections are few and far between in the earlier part of the season, but so far the three systems are a combined 9-9 with the end-of-season tournaments when we get really busy.

At least my bet on the Superbowl was profitable even if I didn't get the best value by waiting until kick-off.