Thursday 27 June 2024

Splits, Hikes, and NHL 2023

It would normally be rather concerning that a stock closes at $3283 on a Tuesday and opens at around $64 the next day, but the long anticipated 50:1 split for Chipotle has finally arrived. 

As I wrote a few months back, I bought this stock ($CMG) in September 2020 with the expectation that a split would be coming much sooner, and like many Southern Californians my wife likes her Mexican food, ("your Indian food is my Mexican food") but it's performed well while I've been waiting. 

What hasn't been performing quite so well of late is Bitcoin with a 10%+ pullback in the last month providing an opportunity to "buy the dip"; or to throw good money after bad, depending on your point of view. 

More on my financial investments next month as we close out the first half of 2024, at least in months if not quite in days. I'll be away for a couple of weeks in early July, with a family wedding in Faversham followed by another long anticipated event, my hike up Ben Nevis. My sister will not be happy that the reception potentially clashes with an England Euros Quarter-Final game should we advance from the Round of 16, but I did warn her several months ago. 

As for Ben Nevis, the exact date will be weather dependent. I got lucky two years ago with Snowdon, and last year with Scafell Pike both days having clear skies and fantastic views, so I'm hoping for the hat-trick. Tuesday the 9th is my preference, but I have two, or at worst three, reserve days if necessary. 

As for sport, the NHL season is now over, with the Edmonton Oilers falling at the last hurdle with winning four consecutive games proving too much against the Florida Panthers. The wait for Canada goes on. 

For the 'official' NHL System, the 2023 season's results were disappointing with Killer Sports showing a negative ROI from 416 selections of -1.0%. However, given that Killer Sports' odds are generally to an overround of 104% or greater, (it was 104.84% for the Stanley Cup Finals for example) that 1% loss doesn't look too bad. While there is much to admire about Killer Sports, it's fair to say that their numbers are generally beatable by shopping around or using the exchanges.

But there is always room for improvement, and I'll be taking a closer look at the numbers in the next few months. Certain matches between teams from different conferences (Eastern v Western) have long shown a bias, and a system with just four losing seasons out of the 18 for which we have data sounds good at first, but when three of these have come in the last four seasons well, not so good. Markets typically adjust unfortunately. 

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