I had the thought on Thursday morning that anti-Russian, more specifically anti-Putin, sentiment might be a factor in the markets for the League Cup Final with casual punters showing their outrage by throwing their money behind Liverpool as a proxy for Ukraine against "aggressor" Chelsea, owned of course by Roman Abramovich, a close ally of Putin's.
Monday 28 February 2022
Heartless
Friday 25 February 2022
War and Draw
Obviously, there are far more important things going on in the world this week than investing, but the reality is that life for most of us will go on pretty much as usual.
Saturday 19 February 2022
UEFA Changes
Interesting. The rule change about away goals will probably have some impact on these figures too. I suspect that in the more balanced games, the team playing away first might just be more conservative and be happy to settle for a draw and complete the job next, at home. They are no longer rewarded for taking risks away in the first leg. That might explain, in part, Real Madrid's very defensive strategy yesterday (along with PSG's good performance).One of the justifications given by UEFA for scrapping this rule was that:
The impact of the rule now runs counter to its original purpose as, in fact, it now dissuades home teams – especially in first legs – from attacking, because they fear conceding a goal that would give their opponents a crucial advantage.
As HKibuzz suggests, the rule change means that Away teams are now disincentivised from pushing for that away goal, and will be happier with a 0:0 result than in previous seasons. In the past, while a goalless draw Away was often a decent result, it always left the worry of conceding at Home and thus requiring two goals to win, and so wasn't anywhere near as satisfying as a score draw. With the new rule, a 0:0 result is much better.
From a betting perspective, since at least 2004 there has been a nice edge (ROI 13%) backing Home teams in First Leg games when the team is an odds-against favourite, and where the Draw is second favourite. Whether this continues remains to be seen.
As you might expect, the best strategies for betting on the Second Leg of ties vary depending on the First Leg result. There's certainly been a big difference in Second Leg matches following a 0:0 draw and those following a score-draw in the First Leg.
In all Second Leg matches following a Draw, backing the Away team has an ROI of 9.4%, but backing the Away team after a 0:0 has an ROI of 27% increasing to 83% on matches with no clubs from the Big Five leagues involved. My suspicion is that in these games there is basically less interest, and lazy sportsbooks tend to overweight the win probability of the Home team knowing this is where the dumb money will go. It seems reasonable to assume that prices are more accurate for the likes of Real Madrid and AC Milan than for clubs such as Maccabi Haifa, FK Crvena Zvezda and Osmanlispor.
Tuesday 15 February 2022
City, Cincy and Crypto
The Champions League Round of 16 starts tonight, and for those of you wondering if this is a good place to look for Draws, the answer is no.
With inflation at 7.5%, you lose half your money in 9 years. The only way to outperform that consistently, that I have found, is crypto. Just this year, I’ve already lost half my money.
Thursday 10 February 2022
Wine in Decline
At the time of writing**, the upcoming Brentford v Crystal Palace game looks like it may be a member of the exclusive sub-3 club, with the Draw currently priced by Pinnacle at 2.99.
As the father of two millennial sons, I am something of an expert on being unable to persuade millennials to do as I suggest.
The 3p Parlay By George
An 85-year-old grandfather pocketed more than £2,600 after placing just 3p on a bet at his local bookmaker.
Janus “George” Wagonback put his 3p – a stake so small it would not usually be allowed by Betfred – on a 10-fold accumulator last week, eventually claiming winnings of £2,686.04.
“I’ve had some significant wins on the football over the years, much bigger than this one,” said Mr Wagonback, from Sutton-in-Ashfield in Nottinghamshire.
“But then again, I usually bet more than 3p, which is basically loose change that I had in my pocket.”
Betfred normally operates with a minimum stake of 5p, but were happy to make an exception for Mr Wagonback as he is a regular customer.
He bet that all 10 matches in his accumulator – Millwall-Preston, Wimbledon-Cheltenham, Bradford-Leyton Orient, Colchester-Rochdale, Swindon-Crawley, Dundee-Dundee United, Hibernian-Hearts, Ross County-Aberdeen, St Mirren-Motherwell and a World Cup Qualifier between Lebanon and Iraq – would be draws, at odds just short of 90,000-1.
“I was confident the Scottish games would all be draws, as they often are up there,” he said.
“I didn’t know I’d won until I checked the paper the next day.
“I did feel good, but can’t jump around much these days – only little jumps.”
Mr Wagonback is originally from Budapest in Hungary but moved to the UK as a political refugee in the 1950s.
He is an experienced chess player, having represented his club in Mansfield, and was also named Mr Nottingham in 1969 on the back of his fitness and body-building exploits.
He said: “I have always been a winner because I set my mind to achieve things.
“My ambition is to skin Betfred for a million.”
Betfred boss Fred Done said: “I’ve been in this business for over 50 years, and cannot remember anyone winning so much from just three pence.
“It is a truly remarkable win, with him beating odds of virtually 90,000/1.”
Remarkable indeed, and I liked the comment “I was confident the Scottish games would all be draws, as they often are up there”. They are? We may be missing a trick here. Graeme? We need your input. Put those horses down for five minutes and look at the Draw in your country.
With only one selection featuring a team priced at odds-on (Swindon Town), Mr. Wagonback may well be a reader of this blog. Using Pinnacle's prices, the accumulator would have been closer to 132,000/1 with the Lebanon v Iraq Draw priced as favourite at just 2.74, one of the shorter Draw prices you'll find.
Tuesday 8 February 2022
Déjà Vu as Draws Rule Again
With a perfect draw in the Final closing out the Africa Cup of Nations tournament, it's another winning competition for the Knockout Draw strategy, not only for the 'no odds-on' system but also for the basic every game system.
Saturday 5 February 2022
Tight Draws in Africa
If you're playing the Draw in the Africa Cup of Nations knockout stage, you should be guaranteed a small profit with just the Final to come. The 'official' results from backing the Draw in all 14 games so far is 0.89 units (6% ROI) and from the matches with no team fairly priced at odds-on, a more exciting return so far of 5.59 units and a 93% ROI, though as I've written before, ROIs on such a small number of matches are fairly meaningless.