The Champions League Round of 16 starts tonight, and for those of you wondering if this is a good place to look for Draws, the answer is no.
Blindly backing the Draw in the 144 first leg matches going back to the 2003-04 season would have resulted in a loss of 11.74 units, (ROI -8.2%), with the damage coming in the past two seasons - with just the one Draw - and from matches where the Home team is favourite.
In matches where the Away team is favourite, the ROI for the Draw is positive, but in matches where the second favourite is the Draw, the ROI jumps to 14.6%.
The Sporting Lisbon v Manchester City game does fit this profile, but the current 1.314 price (Pinnacle) is very short with the sweet spot for the Draw in matches where the fair Away win price is in the 1.95 to 2.3 range.
There have been three previous matches with the Away team at this short a price - all Manchester City, all in recent years, and all resulting in an Away win. Bayern Munich are a similar price tomorrow.
In the EPL last weekend, we had two winners from four selections with the Brentford v Crystal Palace match the most pleasing from a betting perspective. 
As discussed in this post, the match was always a candidate although in the end the price drifted out to 3.28 and nowhere near being a sub 3.0 price which triggered the post.
Crystal Palace matches have been a selection five times this season so far, and every one has been a winner. Southampton are 3 from 3, and only Norwich City have yet to be a qualifier. Leicester City matches are the most frequent qualifiers, with the West Ham United game making it five winners from 10 games.
The two losers this weekend were both "Toss-Up" selections, with the two winners both in the "Close" category. ROIs for the season are now 39.7% and 37% respectively.
Any of you treating the Cincinnati Bengals as Road 'Dogs for the Superbowl on Sunday would have been rewarded with a win, although the Los Angeles Rams won straight up, the second consecutive season that the winner has been crowned in their own stadium. The Arizona Cardinals will be hoping to make it three in a row next season.
And finally, I'm not sure who first came up with this, but I found it quite amusing:
With inflation at 7.5%, you lose half your money in 9 years. The only way to outperform that consistently, that I have found, is crypto. Just this year, I’ve already lost half my money.
1 comment:
Interesting. The rule change about away goals will probably have some impact on these figures too. I suspect that in the more balanced games, the team playing away first might just be more conservative and be happy to settle for a draw and complete the job next, at home. They are no longer rewarded for taking risks away in the first leg. That might explain, in part, Real Madrid's very defensive strategy yesterday (along with PSG's good performance).
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