Barrie's Revenge

Before the MLB season began, some of you may recall a suggestion from Barrie for a system based on revenge. Barrie wrote:

Again it concerns losing home teams but this time teams that have been embarrassed by a defeat by three or more runs and are playing the same team still at home in the next game, the theory is they will seek revenge and so should be backed but avoid weak teams by only betting if they are favourites. This is claimed to have shown a profit on both the money line and the run line for the last two seasons, your view would be appreciated and whether you put this on your blog for your other reader is up to you, I'm not sure systems being published makes much difference, maybe punters don't have the resolve to stick with it!.

I commented on the suggestion in the linked-to post above, basically saying that although it was a fact that the last two seasons were profitable, I felt that the system had no real merit, and had just had a fortunate couple of years.

With the end of June having arrived, and baseball (or at least my investing on it) starting to get serious, I thought I'd take another look at how Barrie's Revenge system would have played out this season so far and the results are above. So far this season, betting on both the Straight Up and Run Line options would have been loss-making, to the tune of 6.76 and 2.19 points respectively. Not huge losses, but enough to take the five season total into the red.

Sticking with baseball, and some of you may remember my post last season about backing the Unders when ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw is starting.

Some of you may also have noticed the trend towards Unders on Kershaw's games - from 30 starts this season, the profit would have been 6.40 points. Impressive, and over Kershaw's career, backing Unders would be up 20.15 points (246 games).

This is one trend that has continued into this season, admittedly after a shaky opening month when it took three losses in the first five games. The next loss was just this past weekend.

We may have to wait a while for our next winner, as Kershaw was scheduled to pitch last night, but has been ruled out for 15 days with a lower back injury. Bummer.

As for the shorties I told you about last season, including here, they have had a strong season so far. Straight Up:

...and Run Line

Maybe a few of you are taking advantage along with Fizzer and myself.