Wednesday 6 July 2016

T Bone Sizzles

While I was researching the / RJ Bell post last week, I came across a thread with an opening post saying:

I've found a system for MLB that plays only favorites. The favorites have to be -140 or better to qualify. Betting on favorites at those numbers is very risky business and almost certainly doomed to fail but not all those teams will qualify as a play and it's hard to argue with the results. This system has been profitable when playing on the Moneyline, Runline, and the Ov since 2014.
While the poster (T Bone) declined to detail what the selection criteria were, he gave a few clues in subsequent posts, and it is clear that the system is based on road favourites coming off a loss.

Readers of this blog will know that following MLB favourites is a profitable strategy these days, (e.g. since 2011, straight up at 1.71 or less is +1,14.38 points) but the 'coming off a loss' angle was new, and the trend towards Overs was new too. Why should the Overs be value all of a sudden?

So being me, I decided to take a look at the numbers, and for recent seasons came up with these:
The claim of profitability is verified, although 2015 was actually a losing season with all bets combined, but 2012-2014 were solid enough, although the Overs were losers until now.

This season it's a different story, and the 76.3% strike rate for Overs after 65 games to date is frankly ridiculous and surely can't last. It's only this season's profits that have put Overs into the green, but the results on the Money and Run Line bets are both very solid over the past five seasons.

I've added this system into my portfolio and named it T-Bone, (I can cope with an average of under one bet a day), and will try to remember to update results each month.

And on a personal note, the hit counter for this blog has now ticked past the 1.25 million mark. Thank you, and keep reading.

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