Monday, 2 March 2020

Washington Wins

Some good news overnight with the Washington Capitals beating the Minnesota Wild to end the losing streak at three, which tied the longest such run since the system started in 2013, but more importantly the stock futures have turned from red to green overnight although of course this doesn't always get reflected when the markets open.

Washington was good for me last night. The Wizards (at Golden State) along with the Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans were the two winners for the NBA Overs system from three selections.  

An email regarding the MLB Systems mentioned the overlap between some of the T-Bone selections and the Hot Favourite selections, and since 2013 the numbers for these systems, with a couple of other groups for your awareness, are:

My definition of 'hot' at -200 or shorter is somewhat arbitrary, but -240 (1.42) or shorter is actually the optimal price in terms of ROI.

The table above should help you to avoid the costly favourites. 
With Opening Day not too far off, I'm able to share that backing the favourite in Opening Day Divisional games when they won fewer games than their opponent in the previous season has a database all time ROI of 28.4% and an incredible 63.7% on the Run Line. Only 33 matches going back to 2005 so don't go crazy but worth considering. The rationale is that there is a carry over from the previous season which doesn't fully account for the close season changes, and the market lacks confidence in the favourite and there is thus value. 

It's a bias that also exists in the NFL where the all-time record for Opening Day Home Favourites has an ROI of 24.4% in all matches, though 'only' 16.6% in Divisional games.


Matthew Trenhaile said...

Greetings Padrino,

"-240 (1.42) or shorter is actually the optimal price in terms of ROI"

Out of curiosity if you were to use the method from this blog post:

Which price would generate the optimal Sharpe ratio?



Peter said...

I am having trouble working out what you mean by Divisional games. Are they the games where a team plays in their own division or when they play teams in the other two divisions? I hope you will help clear this up.