Monday, 2 March 2020

February Made Me Shiver

February certainly ended with a bang, with markets dipping into correction territory in record time. Gains in the first three weeks of the month were more than offset by the sell-off resulting in one of the worst months in spreadsheet history which goes back to 2010. 

In real terms it was the fourth worst month ever, in percentage terms the sixth worst, but it always helps to have some perspective and all it means is that I am back to where I was in November of last year, and in November of last year the numbers were at a record high and I was quite happy with things.

It's also worth remembering that unless you sell the shares or funds you own, you've actually lost nothing, and history tells us the worst time to sell is when everyone is in a panic. This week will be interesting with stock futures currently pointing to another losing day on Monday. Buckle up. 

As for sports betting, with half the month lost to being in South Africa, and the NBA's All-Star Break, things were pretty quiet. The NHL System, which since the league re-structured in 2013 has never had a losing sequence of greater than three, ended February with a losing sequence of three. History, of the wrong kind, will be made if the Washington Capitals lose tonight. I'm on at 1.83, although the price has since shortened slightly. 
For the season overall, the system still has an ROI of 7.6% so it's not all doom and gloom. Again for perspective the current losing streak was preceded by a seven game win streak. 

In the NBA, at the 229 or higher entry point, Overs came in 52.7% of the time in February for a small profit, but it's baseball that has been occupying my time of late. The 2020 season starts early this year as I've mentioned, March 26th to be precise, and that's not too far away. Hopefully the trends of recent years will continue but the realist in me says that at some point the markets will catch up. We shall see. 


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