Saturday 22 February 2020

The Urgent Zone

No one posts comments on blogs any more, at least not on this one, but I do get comments on twitter and via email so I know that someone is reading.

One recent email from Fadai concluded with this line:
And your blog is the most useful and interesting blog that I've seen (not just in betting)
Mark preceded his question with:
Thank you for providing such an interesting resource.
José is a fan too, writing:
Hey! I'm just reading your blog Green All Over and I find it very interesting.
Tibor said:
I like your blog a lot. Very insightful.
All much appreciated.

However, the most exciting email while I was away was from a TSA agent (strangely based in Qatar) who sent me this exciting news:
How are you today? My name is Mr. David Peter Pekoske from Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agency of the U.S. Department, please I’m very sorry for my late informing you about a package box worth sum of $11.8 million which was abandoned here in my office by one delivering man named Mr. John, please get back to me now, because your package box is free only waiting for your confirmation's just to say yes you are the owner and also reconfirm your full name and address if everything is the same with the information’s we have here then the delivering of your package box will takes place now okay.
Okay indeed! Seems totally legit, and this may well be my last post. Just finalising the details now - apparently I need to send some money first but I'm sure it's just a formality. I checked with @rast8 and he confirmed that I should give it the benefit of the doubt as he had not heard anything negative about this offer.   

The NBA is back after the All-Star Break and the strategy of backing Overs when the total is set high went into the break with a great record. At the start of the season I wrote that:
For anyone else interested, I'll be looking at backing Overs when the line is set as 229 points or higher to start with.
At the All-Star break, this total had a record of 95-66-3, which at 59% is a very good return (ROI: 14.9%). Hopefully the record after the break will continue to be positive.
Since 2013, back-to-back-to-back games in the NBA have been very rare, but the NBA announced today that the Lakers v Clippers game postponed at the end of January has now been rescheduled and the Lakers will now play on three consecutive days, all at Home, on the 7th, 8th and 9th of April.

Such sequences didn't used to be so rare, and using the last 112 such series as our guide, the following edges are found.

In the first game, Home teams cover 68% of the time. In the second game, Home teams have just a 39% record ATS, with Unders a solid bet here with a 59% record. And in the third and final game, back the Unders. 

The 2020 MLB season isn't far away with Spring Training in full 'swing' and the earliest ever start date of March 26th a little over four weeks away. The regular season will feature games in Mexico, Puerto Rico, London and the first professional baseball game in Iowa since 1875. Even older readers are unlikely to remember the Keokuk Westerns' disappointing record that year! 

The most impactful rule change from a betting perspective would appear to be that:
A pitcher must face at least three batters, unless the inning ends or the pitcher is injured.
This is an attempt to speed up the game, but is a significant change with managers no longer able to bring in pitchers to just get one out as has always been the case previously. Unfortunately in-play trading has pretty much dried up over the past few seasons, so how useful an edge understanding this rule change will be is probably limited, but rule changes often offer a temporary advantage to the thinking bettor.

The annual newsletter from Warren Buffett was released today, and as always included some interesting and amusingly written anecdotes. One such was this story about Berkshire Hathaway owned Lubrizol:
I must add one final item that underscores the wide scope of Berkshire’s operations. Since 2011, we have owned Lubrizol, an Ohio-based company that produces and markets oil additives throughout the world. On September 26, 2019, a fire originating at a small next-door operation spread to a large French plant owned by Lubrizol.
The result was significant property damage and a major disruption in Lubrizol’s business. Even so, both the company’s property loss and business-interruption loss will be mitigated by substantial insurance recoveries that Lubrizol will receive.
But, as the late Paul Harvey was given to saying in his famed radio broadcasts, “Here’s the rest of the story.” One of the largest insurers of Lubrizol was a company owned by . . . uh, Berkshire.
In Matthew 6:3, the Bible instructs us to “Let not the left hand know what the right hand doeth.” Your chairman has clearly behaved as ordered.
On the topic of focusing on your strengths, we have this:
Here, a pause is due: I’d like you to know that almost all of the directors I have met over the years have been decent, likable and intelligent. They dressed well, made good neighbors and were fine citizens. I’ve enjoyed their company. Among the group are some men and women that I would not have met except for our mutual board service and who have become close friends. 
Nevertheless, many of these good souls are people whom I would never have chosen to handle money or business matters. It simply was not their game. 
They, in turn, would never have asked me for help in removing a tooth, decorating their home or improving their golf swing. Moreover, if I were ever scheduled to appear on Dancing With the Stars, I would immediately seek refuge in the Witness Protection Program. We are all duds at one thing or another. For most of us, the list is long. The important point to recognize is that if you are Bobby Fischer, you must play only chess for money. 
And on the topic of Berkshire Hathaway being prepared for the ultimate demise of Buffett and Charlie Munger, he writes:
Three decades ago, my Midwestern friend, Joe Rosenfield, then in his 80s, received an irritating letter from his local newspaper. In blunt words, the paper asked for biographical data it planned to use in Joe’s obituary. Joe didn’t respond. So? A month later, he got a second letter from the paper, this one labeled “URGENT.”
Charlie and I long ago entered the urgent zone. That’s not exactly great news for us. But Berkshire shareholders need not worry: Your company is 100% prepared for our departure.


Trader 247 said...

Oh come on. I'm the first to take the tee?
What's the conversion on 11.8mil? Gotta be like... lots?
Excellent blog, keep it up ��

thomas said...

just to let you know...I've been an avid reader of your blog for many years...a valuable source of information. From all the way "down under" in Melbourne tommy