Wednesday 26 February 2020

Seasonal Table

After commenting that no one posts comments on blogs any more, the floodgates appear to have opened regarding emails, which is all good.

One email asked me:

I am taking the liberty of contacting you because I saw an article where you talk about the scientia trading site.

Do you know this man?

I've spoken with him a little and I'm suspicious of what he's proposing, should I run away as soon as possible?

I don't believe in the holy grail and he told me that he usually makes more than 30% return per month.
This is of course our old friend Mel, so at least this answers the question of whether or not he is alive and well. What exactly Mel is proposing remains unknown for now, but my advice was indeed to run away as far and as fast as possible. Long term returns of more than 30% a month are not possible. If they were, Mel would soon be one of the richest people on the planet, a target that has got a lot lower after the past two days in the stock markets with my own net worth spreadsheet suffering its worst one day and two day results ever, at least in real terms, and with a current six figure drawdown I guess retirement is (again) postponed for a few more months! 

Another reader wrote:
Hello. I guess you hear this often but i have to ask. Why don't you have your systems in a table or something? I'm trying to find your nhl system but can't. Even on google
I do update the results for my systems periodically, and at the end of the season, but as the sports are all seasonal, I don't see much benefit displaying them all together, although it might be interesting for comparison purposes. As for the NHL System, this one has been paid for by some so it would be unfair to give the details away for free to others. 

Just for fun, I thought I'd compile a table for the last five seasons (currently in-play shown in yellow) comparing some of the basic systems I've discussed.

Sorted by ROI, and the NBA's Road Favourites System and the NHL System take up the top six places ahead of a few College and NFL seasons. 
While the ROIs for MLB look relatively poor, this is due to the large number of selections in the latter sport which looks a lot better when ranked by points won:
Correction: In the initial post, I erroneously missed out the key word 'relatively'. Thanks to A Lucky A Day for commenting on this. As anyone involved with sports betting / investment will know, ROIs of the size seen above are anything but poor. My point was that ROI alone does not tell the story. We've all seen huge ROIs from small sample sizes, but these are meaningless. Only when the sample size grows larger can they be taken seriously.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Do you by chance offer these systems for purchase?