Monday, 2 November 2020

All Souls Day Update

Another profitable Sunday for the NFL Small Road 'Dogs system which advances to a 17-10 record with the three wins and one loss yesterday. All four matches were Divisional games where the edge is historically bigger, and these are now 6-4 on the season. 

Tonight's game is not a qualifier. Since the league reorganised for the 2002 season, only 24 teams have been road favourites by more than 12 points, as are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight for the first time in database history.

In non-Divisional games, the overall record ATS for favourites is a losing one (4-9-2) but the last loss was back in 2012. 

Both of tonight's EPL matches fall into the "Close" category but no luck with the one "Toss-Up" qualifier yesterday (Aston Villa v Southampton, coincidentally the second consecutive time this fixture has featured in a post!) 

The US Presidential Election market is closing in on £300 million matched on Betfair, a Betfair record, with Biden currently at 1.51 / 1.52. Once again last night, the price on Trump shortens overnight and then drifts during the day. 

A word of caution if you are arbing this market that the rules clearly state that "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election." In other words, the "winner" isn't necessarily the person who will be the next President. 

There is also a caveat in the Senate Majority market which specifically excludes the two Independent senators who both caucus with the Democrats. So if you are betting on the tie, you are betting on the Democrats getting 49 seats, and not the 48 seats which they need in practice. 

No comments: