Thursday, 5 November 2020

When the Tie-Breaker is Tied

Thanks to @Bitcoinpari_, the flaw in my logic puzzling over why either Pennsylvania or Georgia was identified.

What I didn't know until today, was that in the event of a tie, while the deciding vote is cast by the House of Representatives, it is based on one vote per state and not one vote per representative, and with Republicans currently in the majority when measured by state, although maybe not in the new Congress, the deciding vote would go to Trump.

Some tried to claim that the flaw in my logic was due to correlation, but that argument never made sense. What I was pointing out was that if Trump's only paths to winning had a sum probability of around 2%, then why was his price around 10%?

As mentioned, Trump's probability was actually higher than that 2%, because a Biden win in Georgia wouldn't have been enough on it's own. 

Fortunately not only did I learn something new, although now I am wondering what would happen of the House was tied at 50-50**, but I got away with the mistake since Biden has since shortened to 1.08 / 1.09 with Trump out to 13.5 / 14. 

Pennsylvania is currently 1.08 for Biden, with Georgia around 1.34, Arizona 1.23 and Nevada 1.04.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, it's over. If he wins Arizona AND Nevada, it's over. If he wins Georgia AND either Arizona or Nevada it's over, so the 1.08 for Next President still offers value, discounted presumably because of the risk of courts stepping in which seems less likely as the hours go by. There's probably also a few people who have a significant sum tied up and are looking to cash out.  

** I looked up the tie in the tie-breaker rules: Note that if a majority is not reached in the House vote (e.g., 25-25), that chamber needs to keep at it until the tie is broken. If the deadlock is still in place when the new term starts (noon, ET on Jan. 20), the vice president becomes acting president until such time as the House elects a president.

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