Sunday, 4 July 2021

Lightning Strike and Sinistral Pitching

Hopefully some of you made some money on the Tampa Bay Lightning who won Game Three at an 'official' 1.79, and who will be a qualifier in Game 4 tomorrow when they attempt to sweep the Montreal Canadiens to retain the Stanley Cup. Their odds won't be so generous this time though, currently at around 1.67 but drifting slightly. 

The NBA Finals are set, with the previously mentioned Phoenix Suns playing the Milwaukee Bucks, a franchise that last reached the Finals in 1974 and last won the title in 1971. The Suns have home court advantage and they have never won the title, losing in 1993 to the Chicago Bulls and in 1976 to the Boston Celtics. The Suns are favourites for the title at around 1.63. 

No more winners for Draw backers in the Euro 2020 tournament, but a profit is already guaranteed with three matches remaining. Profits from the 12 matches so far are 6.82 units.

History is on our side. Of the 88 Euro knockout matches ever played, only 51 have been decided in 90 minutes, with Belgium the only country playing five or more games with all being decided in regulation. 

Of the remaining teams in this tournament, Italy's Draw percentage is 57%, England 50%, Spain 47% and Denmark 29% but in Euro Semi-Finals, the edge is to back the favourite, with an ROI of 39%, but obviously a small sample size. 

If we include World Cup Semi-Finals, the ROI on favourites is still high at 26%, but the Draw becomes profitable also. Which all looks rather promising for a dream Italy v England Final but this scenario also looked promising in 1990 until two disastrous penalty shootouts led to the elimination of both countries and to probably the worst World Cup Final of all-time.

In baseball, July has continued the good run for hot favourites with four out of four so far and one selection (Los Angeles Angels) today with the added bonus that the starter (Patrick Sandoval) throws left-handed, and such throwers have a remarkable 33-3 record this season.

No comments: