Thursday, 24 June 2021

Killer Closing

A rare loss for the 'Hot Favourites' system on Tuesday, although with Gerrit Cole the starting pitcher, it perhaps wasn't a surprise given his poor record as a hot favourite this year. He already had more losses than any other pitcher this season for us, and now leads all comers by two, with five losses in his nine matches.

Overall this season the ROI on the Money Line is 12.6% and an even higher  
20.8% on the Run Line, but interestingly, by which I mean I have no explanation for this at the moment, when the starting pitcher is left handed, the profits are far higher this season compared with previous years. 
Unfortunately insights such as this will be much harder in the future as it appears the site I use (Killer Sports) is to shut down soon.
Whether any alternatives will reveal themselves remains to be seen, but it is bad news. For betting pre-game you need data, and this site has baseball data going back to 2004 which has proven to be very valuable. 

Unfortunately it attracts people who get excited by nonsense such as "Padres as a dog since 2008 of more than 125 before all star break in first game of series, last h2h was home win this season where opposing team threw 2+ strikeouts." When you play with enough parameters, random patterns are easy to be find.

Oh well, at least they are seeing the MLB season to its conclusion, and the NBA and NHL seasons will have ended, but no NFL for next season. Fortunately we have a clear edge in this sport going back to 2002 so I should be able to cope even if it will take a little longer to identify qualifiers. The other issue is that no longer will the results of systems be readily verifiable, but life goes on.   

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