Euro 2020

When it comes to the knockout stages of big tournaments such as World Cups and Euros, it should come as no surprise that the Draw is generally where the value lies. 

I only have data going back to the 2004 Euros, which means a sample size of just 96 matches. The third-place play-off games in World Cups tend not to be competitive, nor are they technically elimination games.

Using Odds Portal prices adjusted to a standard over-round of 103% (in Euro 2004, this was over 110% declining to 102.6% for the 2018 World Cup), backing the Draw in all 96 matches would have profited you 27.22 units, an ROI of 28.4%.

The highest ROI is at the Quarter-Final stage, but every round (Round of 16, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final and Final) shows a profit. When games are 'toss-ups' or 'close' matches the ROI is 71%. Unfortunately 18 matches in eight tournaments would test the patience of most of us, but worth mentioning for those who use Kelly when determining their stakes. 

Euros / World Cups 2004 - 2018

In the 40 matches where there was an odds-on favourite (using fair odds) the ROI is 4%, while it is 46% in the more evenly matched of matches. 

Of course in any single tournament with just a few matches, the chances of a loss are very real, with three of the eight tournaments showing small losses. 

The 2010 World Cup lost 1.77 units from 15 matches, and both the last two Euros were losers with losses of 0.7 units in 2012 (from 7 matches) and 0.13 units in 2016 (from 15 matches).