Differences And Hockey Returns

For reasons I'll explain in my month-end summary, it's been a sad couple of days here at Green All Over HQ, so this comment from a "Sacred Manuscript" subscriber which was received after I had sent out an updated version of the document, came at a good time last night:

Thanks for the update Cassini. I really appreciate your diligence in fine tuning the document you have supplied. It shows you are a man of integrity and a decent human.

That comment really meant a lot to me, and was much appreciated. If I make a mistake, I admit it and correct it as best I can, since that is the right thing to do. 

Unfortunately the world of sports betting has more than its share of unsavory characters, and a reputation to match, but integrity is very important to me which is one reason why I try to make my systems as transparent and verifiable as possible.

I've written before about how results will vary depending on where and when you source your prices, and the 'official' results are just a benchmark that should be beatable for most people.

While individual results, including my own, will never match the 'official' results, they are usually reasonably close, but one reader had a much larger difference in American Football which prompted these comments (personal and proprietary details omitted):

Hi Cassini, I just read with interest your latest post.

I am surprised to see a huge variation in the NCAA football system results, would it be because you don't include the FCS division in your stats? I have played NCAA and NCAA this weekend, and tried to get the last minutes odds before kick off except for the late games (we have a 2-hour time difference with the UK here in Finland), and I ended up with 17 selections, and an incredible 14-3 result, bringing the whole system back in profit just like that!

Altogether, from the start of the season, on this one I am 26-22-1.

I enjoy following all these systems, it might become hard work once all the leagues are on, but it is a lot of fun when it wins :)

Have a good evening

So my 'official' College Football results for the season to date are 28 matches, evenly split between wins and losses, and yes I do include the FCS Division matches, whereas the approach detailed above produces almost twice as many selections, and more importantly, a profitable record!

The update I mentioned in my opening paragraph related to an NHL System which has been profitable since 2010 with a 6.5% ROI from more than 3600 matches. Although the example query was correct, I incorrectly wrote shorter rather than longer regarding the odds range to be looking at, and our old friend Dr Tsouts wrote back to say (proprietary information redacted):

I was betting on X.XX and shorter and my ROI is 6.2%.

It turns out that by sheer good fortune, in the 2021 season this was actually a profitable strategy, although the 'official' ROI would have been 7.5%.

Long term though and it's not so profitable, although after 2021's gains the ROI is only down by 0.8% since 2006, but I'll need to see more improvement before changing the system which admittedly hasn't got off to the best of starts this season, with a 1-2 start last night. Early days. 

At least we did have another comfortable win for Unders in a low-scoring Thursday Night game in the NFL with the Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears combining for just 19 points in a game where the line was around 37.5 to 38. On totals this low, when the teams are playing on short rest (combined fewer than 10 days) the Unders win percentage is 69% all-time and 89% since 2008.