Sacred Manuscript 2024-25 v1.0

My wife hasn't seen much of me for the past few days, but at 75 pages, and containing more than 40 systems, the 2024-25 version of the 'Sacred Manuscript' is finally complete.

I gave myself until the end of July to complete it, and I needed almost every hour.

The big changes from 2023-24 are that I have added systems for three new sports, removed German football (Bundeslayga), re-added MLB post the universal Designated Hitter rule, and tightened up the rather messy NHL system.  

Canadian Football (CFL) has been added, as have two basketball variations - the WNBA and College (NCAA) Basketball, the latter courtesy of Frédéric who found a very interesting angle, and you can follow him on Twitter (X) here: https://x.com/HkiBuzz

The NHL System has been improved upon. For the past few seasons, i.e. since the 2016 season, returns have been rather insipid, with the overall return of 5.3% since 2010 masking the fact that the last eight seasons have had an ROI of just 0.7%.

Not what the doctor ordered, and the improved system - fewer selections, but higher quality - will hopefully prove to be more profitable moving forward:

Markets do change, and I've covered the unusual situation which impacted the NBA Totals System last season. 

Fortunately subscribers kept 81% of the profits accrued before the disruptor came into play, but it's a great example of why it's important to keep records and monitor for anything unusual.

There are some new systems for MLB which had been asked for by some, and the 'Hot Favourites' have been removed after being suspended pending more data in the universal Designated Hitter era. 

The Bundeslayga Systems have also been removed. 

Two consecutive losing seasons, and three of the last four in the red, and it's clear this system is no longer profitable. It was also one of the more complicated to apply, so all in all, very hard to justify keeping it going.

I have kept the EPL Draws in the document, although they too had a second consecutive losing season. The low number of selections each season (last year was 28) means that returns can be quite volatile, but there are certain match profiles that continue to be a positive subset.  

I've also added a 'Technical Details' section where I calculate the probability that a system's results are from luck. Unashamedly stolen from Joseph Buchdahl's spreadsheet, it shows the p-value from which the 1-in-x number is derived.

The highest rated system is surprisingly from Serie A, with a 1 in 41,000 (actually 40,977) rating, while the lowest at 1 in 2 is from the CFL and is actually a secondary bet from a system that has a 1 in 132 rating. 

For the Spread / Totals markets, I assume a -110 line (1.909) for these calculations, though I usually use Pinnacle's -105 (1.952) line. 

For the Money Line I use Killer Sports' numbers, but these are typically to a higher overround than most people should usually be able to get.

Below are the systems where the p-value is less than 10%:

I've sent out the first version to the early-bird subscribers and re-subscribers with the request that any errors, however small, be made known to me. Along with any comments or feedback of course.

There are a lot of details, numbers and calculations in the document, so the p-value that I've not made a mistake is probably quite high!

Summer Highs

The knockout stages of both major summer international football tournaments - the 2024 Euros and Copa América - were extremely profitable for backers of the Draw with an ROI of 45% from the combined 22 matches. 

I know some of you were following, with the good Dr Tsouts (@drtsouts) reporting:

I started following from stage of 8 in Euro and Copa America 2024 and these are the numbers:

Euro 3 wins-4 losses, 7 units at risk, + 2.26 units
Copa 4 wins-3 losses , 7 units at risk, + 6.37 units

Stu_the_Hut (@progman68) also shared his numbers on Twitter, including the eight 'Round of 16' matches:

Here's my results :- 

Euro 5 wins, 9 losses, 14 units at risk, +3.78 units
Copa 4 wins, 2 losses, 6 units at risk, + 6.80 units

It looks like Stu may have skipped the Colombia v Panama game with the favourites a very short 1.34 at fair odds and winning 5:0, as well as the Spain v Georgia where the numbers were 1.23 and 4:1. 

Excluding matches where the fair priced favourite is shorter than 1.5 increases the overall ROI across all major tournaments from 25% to 30%. 

My 'official' numbers from the Quarter-Final stage are +2.25 and +6.09 units respectively, but these totals should be beatable as indeed Dr T and Stu have shown. The Round of 16 made another 1.59 units 'officially'. 

 

We now have data from 115 matches going back to 2004, and the overall ROI is a very solid 42%. Almost half the matches are quarter-finals, and the overall ROI on matches at this stage is now at 77%. 

There will be a UEFA Nations League tournament in June next year, although I'm not sure this young tournament is yet to be considered 'major' - and England won't be featuring given their relegation last time out - and in late December there is an Africa Cup of Nations to look forward to. 

The 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup will be a dress rehearsal for the 2026 World Cup and looks likely to include teams from Europe, Africa, South America and Asia. The Gold Cup is the one international tournament where backing the Draw isn't profitable with several lopsided games with a hot favourite (usually Mexico or USA), but if you exclude these matches, the ROI is positive, albeit by 'only' 9%, a number that would usually be quite exciting but when it's compared to the other tournaments, perhaps not so much. If countries from other confederations do end up taking part, the results may be more typical. 

It will also be interesting to see how the proposed expanded FIFA Club World Cup competition fits in with all this, since the United States is also hosting that competition. It's all getting a little messy with only FIFA appearing to be enthusiastic about the club competition. 

I'll expand on these numbers more in the Sacred Manuscript as I finalise the 2024-25 version over the next few days but here are the updated high level numbers for the major international football competitions:

I've had a couple of people ask me about Baseball, which I've suggested might be a sport best left alone while data following the major rule changes of recent years can be accumulated, but I do see a possible edge in some games which I'll be including.

A few weeks ago I mentioned Wayward Lad and his Pension Builder blog which hadn't been updated for a while, but Ian is back with an update on his Self-Invested Personal Pension account including a plan to "position the portfolio into more of an income generator than a pure growth vehicle." 

On a personal note, I picked a good week to head up to Scotland and hike up Ben Nevis. The first morning there was perfect, and unlike last year in the Lake District when I had to wait out the rain for a couple of days to climb Scafell Pike, this time I was done on day one with the reserve days not needed. 

The round trip took a little under seven hours and a few new records were set with the 36,200 steps and 251 flights recorded by my iPhone new all-time daily 'highs':

With Snowdon checked off in 2022, that's now the National Three Peaks off my bucket list. I think I'll climb Helvellyn in 2025 though - it's a mountain I hiked up with some school friends when I was 16 but I don't remember too much about it, except that the weather wasn't terribly good and we were woefully unprepared. I'm a little more sensible now. 

And then back to Scotland for Ben Macdui in 2026 perhaps, assuming I'm still able to walk. It's good to have goals. In 2027 I hope to turn 70, so a physical challenge on that day would be nice. The Yorkshire Three Peaks Walk looks like a possible candidate, but I'm open to suggestions.

I didn't pick such a good day for my visit to the Oval on Friday 5th July with Surrey's T20 game against Middlesex abandoned without a ball being bowled, but a full refund softened the blow and a quiet day before a twelve hour wedding on the Saturday might have been a good idea anyway. 

Drawing Breath

So far so good for anyone applying the Elimination Match Draw System to the Euro 2024 tournament with two winners from the six games so far at 'official' odds of 4.33 (England v Slovakia) and 5.25 (Portugal v Slovenia) although as is often the case, these prices were easily beatable and were backed personally at 4.5 and 5.4 on Betfair (with the 2% commission rate making the odds an effective 4.43 and 5.312 respectively.)

Prior to these two results, no Draw priced at greater than 4.09 in Euros Knockout Stages had ever won, so these weren't the likeliest of matches to produce winners, but they all count.  

These tournaments have such a small sample size that although I suspect long-term the ROIs might be higher from the "more competitive" matches, so far there's not a lot of evidence for this. 

Going into the tournament, the ROI on Draws in ALL Euro elimination games was 40%, a number rising to 45% in only those games with no odds-on team, but after six more games this week, the numbers are now 42% and 36% respectively. 

For the Copa América, the numbers are 44% and 34% but to reiterate, when we're talking about such relatively small sample sizes, one or two results can change these numbers in a hurry. 

Unfortunately, I shall be away from my computer for the next two weeks so there will be no daily updates as the Euros and Copa América tournaments reach their conclusions but I'll be home on the 18th July, all being well, and there will be plenty to catch up on. 

Baseball will have had it's All-Star Break, so there will two and a half seasons worth of data with the universal Designated Hitter rule in place, which is a decent number of games given how many games a season are played. This rule was in place in 2020 too, but with a shortened season, an unusual fixture arrangement due to COVID, and the fact that it was at the time just a temporary change, I'm inclined to exclude these games from any analysis. 

I plan to work on the new version of the Sacred Manuscript through that first weekend back home and should have it available by Monday 22nd July. 

The England Quarter-Final will be kicking off in the middle of my niece's wedding reception, which wasn't the best planning on her part, but I suspect I won't be the only person with an interest in the game, and the Semi-Finals will be while I am in Fort William, with Thursday 11th July now looking the most likely day for my long anticipated hike up Ben Nevis with the current weather forecast not looking like it'll be all sunshine and blue skies. 

Enjoy the Summer.