Inbox Nuggets for the NHL, NFL, NCAAF and CFL

Back in March, towards the end of the 2023-24 NHL season, I received an email from 'Anonymous fan' with an interesting idea for a system which had a promising track record supported by a solid hypothesis.

Hey Cassini,

Thank you for your work and your blog. I really appreciate everything you do. I have been messing around with killer sports since you introduced me to it and I have a lot of fun thinking about things that may matter for the sports I enjoy.

I think I may have found an intriguing one for NHL.

Since 2007- ROI +10.5% in 948 games

Since 2021- ROI +5.5% in 208 games

Since this season- ROI +12.9% in 51 games

It seems to be steadily profitable year after year, present a solid number of plays, and the games that meet the criteria are typically quite enjoyable to watch. I am not very good at math or statistics though so maybe it is too small a sample? Either way I was curious to get your thoughts.

Best,
Anonymous fan

I've said before that it's pitting your wits against others and the intellectual challenge of beating these markets that is in many ways more exciting than winning money and having fun with ideas like this is what it's all about. When we can make some of the ideas profitable, so much the better.

I did respond with my thoughts, but back in March I was about to head over to Arkansas for the Total Eclipse and with the NHL season wrapping up, I put this idea to one side and, if I'm being honest, forgot about it. Retirement was apparently a distraction, or I'm simply getting old. 

I was reminded of the system when Anonymous (I shall call him Thomas moving forward) wrote with an observation about an NFL system, and there in the e-mail thread was buried the NHL system.

With 17 full seasons of data dating back to 2006, (for some reason the data we need for 2017 is missing), the numbers are now:

My only concern is that the ROI is down for the latest five seasons, a trend to keep an eye on, but overall the results are good.

Included in my numbers are playoff games where the edge appears to continue.

The fledgling 2024 season has had just one selection to date, a loser, but with two qualifiers tonight it's another system I'll be adding to the Sacred Manuscript and sharing with subscribers along with Thomas' simple, but highly impactful, NFL observation.

After running the numbers, Thomas has essentially managed to obtain the same returns but from fewer than 56% of the selections. 

Side by side, here are the basic returns pre and post Thomas' modifier:

Excellent work, and two probable selections this weekend. It also appears to be effective in College Football with a similar improvement:

And in the CFL too, although with only a dozen games remaining it's a moot point for this season. Thomas deserves a medal.  

It's been an unusual NFL season so far, with just six games having a spread of more than a touchdown and extra-point, i.e. seven points.

At this stage of the season the average number of such games since 1989 is 18, and four of the six hotties this season have lost straight up, with only one covering the spread. 

Finally, and the topic of my previous post regarding shutouts in MLB playoff games is relevant again as we had another one last night in New York as the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Mets 8-0.