EPL Playoffs and Europa League Final Parity

Most seasons, at least one of the three Football League Playoff Finals ends in a Draw, but this is the first time that all three required extra-time, and for good measure, the National League Playoff Final earlier this month also finished level after 90 minutes. 

Results from blindly backing the draw in these finals isn't historically as good as in the final matches of some other competitions, but it's not the worst of ideas outside of the Championship. As you might expect, the Draw in these Finals is rarely a longshot, with only one of the 80 matches having the Draw at greater than a fair-priced 4.0, and just three other matches saw the favourite at odds-on, meaning that 76 of the 80, or 95%, of matches were games where the Draw was at least worth looking at. Since those four matches were basically a wash - technically a 0.01 unit profit, I'll include all 80 in the summary below:

It's the Europa League Final tomorrow and a rare match where all three outcomes are rated close to a 1 in 3 probability. Betfair's prices at the time of writing are:

Odds Portal's Average Odds (with a 103.8% overround) are currently:

Only four matches of the 1856 in my European Club Matches spreadsheet have been as close:

And only two of 769 matches on the English club spreadsheet fit this rare profile, and combined, all six matches went Under 2.5 with three ending as Draws. Under is currently around 1.53. 

Playoff Draws and the Celtics Heat Up

Only three of the previous 19 Championship Playoff Finals had ended as Draws, but two of those were in matches where the Draw price was on the short side, i.e. shorter than a fair priced 3.35. 

The game yesterday between Luton Town and Coventry City had the shortest Draw price ever for a neutral play-off game with today's Carlisle United v Stockport County game looking likely to make that 'short' list too, below and sorted by Draw price:

Again, a reminder that it's a small sample for these games, and when backing the draw you will lose more often than you'll win.  

Another small sample is the number of NBA teams which have come from 0-3 behind in a best-of-seven playoff series, but it's a number that increased by one to four last night with the Boston Celtics doing just that against the Miami Heat, and in dramatic style with the winning basket scored with just 0.1 second remaining on the clock. 

The clubs to have came back from the dead before all lost in game 7, but all three were on the road in that game, whereas the Boston Celtics will be at home and are 1.28 favourites to win.

The other Game 7 losers? In 1951, the New York Knicks lost in the NBA Finals in Rochester to the Rochester Royals - who later became the Cincinnati Royals, the Kansas City Kings and are the current Sacramento Kings.

In 1994, the Denver Nuggets lost to the Utah Jazz in the second round and in 2003 the Portland Trail Blazers lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.

The winners tomorrow (Monday) night will play the Nuggets in the Finals starting on Thursday.

There may be a similar comeback on the cards in the NHL playoffs where the Florida Panthers await either the Dallas Stars or the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Finals. Vegas won the first three games of their series, two in overtime) before Dallas won games 4 and 5. Game 6 is in Dallas and in necessary, Game 7 in Las Vegas. 

Gateshead

I've always had a bit of a soft spot for Gateshead, the first club to fail to win re-election to the Football League in my lifetime and the first to be kicked out despite not finishing in last place since Grimsby Town in 1910. 

They were replaced by Peterborough United, and that original Gateshead AFC folded in 1973. There was a Gateshead United for a while, and interestingly both these "Gateshead" clubs started in South Shields before relocating, and the current club is Gateshead which narrowly missed out on correcting the 1960 injustice by losing to Cambridge United in the 2014 National League Playoff Final.

Yesterday was their second visit to Wembley, this time for the FA Trophy Final, but in this match, laying the favourite has an ROI of 40% and unfortunately for Gateshead, they were favourites:

The last favourite to win the FA Trophy Final at evens or greater was York City in 2012 at 2.09.

Next weekend sees the playoff finals, huge for the six clubs involved and quite exciting for the casual observer too. 

The 60 previous matches show an edge when backing the favourite, an edge which almost doubles to 25% when the Draw is the second favourite outcome. Only three of the sixty matches had an odds-on favourite at fair odds, and all were in the Championship game).    

Rewriting History

I was a little surprised to see that Odds Portal has Coventry City as favourites for the Championship playoff game later this month, since every individual book I'd looked at has Luton Town as market leaders, but when I drilled down it turns out that the nominal Home team is actually Coventry, not Luton as appears to be the case (see above).

I also noticed that some of the historical prices on this site change in time. My practice is to update my spreadsheets fairly soon after the match is over and once the fixture moves into the results page, with the assumption that these numbers were now set in stone, but as with many assumptions, this one appears to be wrong. 

My guess is that the sportsbooks used change over time, and that when one is dropped, not only are their odds not available moving forward, but their odds on historic games are also erased, which can possibly result in changes to the Average and Highest Prices. 

Not the biggest concern in the world, but I like any numbers I show on this blog to be verifiable as I have noted before, but this may not always be the case. And no, I don't have time to go back and confirm 2600 entries! 

With that in mind, here are the odds and results for the Championship playoff game since records began:

As with all the playoff data, the sample size is small, but backing the favourite has been the profitable strategy over the years with an ROI of 34% from the 19 matches. Given that this game is a Final, it's surprising how few Draws there have been with just three since 2004 and just four in the first 14 for which I have no price data. 

The data for the League One and League Two playoff finals is similar, with an ROI from backing the Draw of -13% and a 3% edge when backing the favourite, none of which have ever been priced at (fair priced) odds-on. 

Illustrative of the problem with small sample sizes is that prior to this week's Champions League Semi-Final Second Leg matches, the edge on backing the Home team was 6% and for the Draw was 10%. After two Home wins, the ROIs are now 11% and 4% respectively, but laying the Away team or the 3rd favourite continues to be a solid strategy with ROIs of 7% and 14% respectively.

In the Europa League and Europa Conference League, the story is similar with Away teams and 3rd favourite outcomes to be opposed. Just 5 of 38 Away teams have won (and in four of those they had a 2+ goal lead from the first leg) and just four 3rd favourites. ROIs on these two strategies are 18% and 12% respectively, but again, small samples.   

EFL Playoffs 2023

While the National League playoffs are complete, those of the Football League are still in progress with the Semi-Final second legs starting today and the Final matches still to come.

When it comes to the second leg of these games, there's a lot of value to be had backing the Away team in games where they trail from the first leg, but unfortunately this scenario is missing this year after four Home wins and two Draws. 

For the record, the ROI in these situations is 49% from a sample size of 39 matches.

When the tie is level after the first leg, the edge on backing Home teams is 15%, with Middlesbrough and Barnsley qualifiers this year. 

Sheffield Wednesday trail by four goals, the second largest deficit ever behind Morecambe's six in 2010, a lead which was cut to five after they beat Dagenham and Redbridge at Home in the second leg 2:1 when priced at 1.89. 

The three remaining matches all see the Home side with a one goal deficit, and in such matches there's an edge when backing the Draw - the ROI is 18% from the 30 previous matches, and 39% when the Draw is second favourite. 

When the Draw is priced at a fair 3.5 or shorter, the ROI is 121%, and the Carlisle United v Bradford City game is currently in this range, but the sample is just six games so don't get carried away. 

National League Playoffs Review 2023

The National League has a knack for end-of-season drama, with Notts County yet again coming from behind late in the game, not once but twice, before regaining their Football League place at the expense of Chesterfield by virtue of a penalty shoot-out win. 

Notts County were one of the Football League's original 12 clubs, and being founded in 1862 were once considered to be the oldest professional association football league club in the world before Crystal Palace usurped that claim in recent years with a revised foundation date of 1861.

Just two of the Original Twelve clubs have dropped out of the league previously, with Accrington the only club never to return, so it's good to see Notts County back. 

Incidentally, Accrington do have the claim to fame that they are the only club ever to play all their football league seasons in the top division. Other fascinating Original Twelve trivia is that Notts County were the first of the clubs to play in Division Two (1893), Division Four (1959) and the National League (2019).

So to get back to the drama aspect for a moment, it's interesting to compare Notts County's loss in the playoffs last season with their semi-final win this season.

In 2022, at home to Grimsby Town, Notts County led until the 96th minute before a late equaliser took the game into extra-time where they lost after Grimsby scored a winner in the 119th minute.

 

In 2023, at home to Boreham Wood, Notts County trailed until the 97th minute before a late equaliser took the game into extra-time where they won after scoring a winner in the 120th minute.

What are the odds on Chesterfield regaining their league place next season with a similar script? 

All the National League playoff games are now complete, and the delayed updates can now be posted. I didn't have time to run the numbers on the "lay the rested team" strategy in the Regional Leagues before heading off on my work trip last week, and my hurried wording was perhaps rather confusing with Beigemartin concerned I may have missed out:

The strategy had another three winners from the four Regional games and the ROI across all the National Leagues moved up to 47% from the 32 matches since the current format was introduced in 2017-18. The National League South is the only division where this strategy fails to be profitable, but the sample size (10) is very small. 

Fourteen of the 32 matches had an odds-on favourite at fair odds, and only two of these managed to win. Laying the home side in these matches now has an ROI of 109%. Here are all the 32 matches with the Home team's odds:

When it comes to the playoff Final, the Regional games are played at the home of the higher seed, whereas for the National League itself the match is played at a neutral venue, this year's final being held at Wembley. 

Readers will be aware that in Final matches, backing the Draw is often the best strategy, and these games are no exception.

Backing the Draw in National Finals has an ROI of 25% (from 20 matches), 33% in 28 Regional Finals and overall an ROI of 29%.

Only six of the 48 matches had an odds-on favourite (at fair odds) and four of these ended as Draws.     

National League Bye Lays

There were a couple of dramatic National League games yesterday, and hopefully some of you took notice of my observations regarding the value in opposing the rested team coming off a bye. 

Both matches were winners today with both Notts County and Chesterfield giving their opponents a head start and failing to win in 90 minutes despite starting as odds-on favourites.

Ultimately both advanced after extra-time and noteworthy that Notts County were the shortest price ever ("ever" being since 2003) in any play-off game at 1.23. 

After 28 matches, the ROI on this strategy is now up to 49%, +13.62 units and in matches where the rested side is odds-on, the ROI is 95%, +15.16 units from 16 matches.

Four more such games in the National League Regional divisions still to come, but I'm away for the rest of the week on another work trip, so updates on these will be delayed. 

National League Play-Offs

The Premier League may still be a few games away from completion, but in the National League the play-offs have already begun. Since the expanded six-club format was only introduced in 2017-18, we don't have much data for the Quarter-Final stage, but as I noted on Twitter, for the first time at this stage a Home side wasn't favourite. The match was the North Regional game between Alfreton Town and Kidderminster Harriers where the visitors were 'officially' 1.97 although I was matched at 2.08 on Betfair. 

The safest approach at this stage is historically to lay the Home side, and with five winning results from six, this was again profitable this year:

The Brackley Town lay was looking lost until a 90' + 9' minute equaliser took the game into extra-time, but sometimes these late twists go for you, and sometimes against you. 

All-time, i.e. a whopping sample size of 31 matches, and the futility of backing the Home side at this stage is clear:

It's a similar story at the Semi-Final stage where we have the Home team coming off a bye, but as this post pointed out, this scenario isn't necessarily a good one, and specifically for the National League play-off Sem-Finals I noted here that: 

At 1.4 currently, Notts County (v Boreham Wood), are the shortest priced team ever in a National League play-off game (including the Regional Divisions) with 182 such matches in the books. 

Sports v Fixed Margin and Affordability Checks

With 27, 298 hits, a number that climbs daily, my most read post is one linking to an article about the then new Betfair Premium Charge back in October 2008 written by The Guardian's Greg Wood. 

He has another article today on the topic of affordability checks, discussing whether betting on fixed-margin casino products or on sports (including horse racing) should be treated differently, and the possible impact it will have on horse racing

It's worth a read, even if like me, you couldn't care less about horse-racing, and who knows, in 15 years time maybe this post will be up there with Greg's Premium Charge article. I'll probably be dead by then, but my heirs will no doubt be tracking these things. 

Talking Horses: Racing could pay heavy price in gambling reform

A couple of hours after the government’s White Paper on gambling reform was finally published last week, Julie Harrington, the British Horseracing Authority’s chief executive, was asked whether the proposed legislation took into account the fundamental difference between betting – on racing and other sports – and gaming, on fixed-margin casino products.

“There is some good language in there, accepting that there is a difference between sport and evidence of faster losses on those casino-based games,” Harrington said. “I think on a more detailed reading, you’ll see that it may not be the headlines, but the language below really does differentiate that, so it’s clear that that has landed.”

As anyone who has flown with a budget airline may confirm, however, “landed” can feel like a relative concept when there is still a 30-minute yomp to passport control to come. And whatever “the language below” might suggest, the simple fact remains that when it comes to the proposed introduction of “affordability” checks for punters – a potentially significant threat to racing’s funding from betting – there is no differentiation at all.

Initial “frictionless” checks on punters’ finances will be triggered by a net loss of £125 over a month, or £500 in a year. Potentially more intrusive checks will be made if a customer shows signs of “binge” gambling, defined as a net loss of £1,000 in 24 hours, with further consultation on an additional trigger of a £2,000 net loss in 90 days.

As things stand, these thresholds apply regardless of whether a punter gambles solely on sport, solely on casino products or a mixture of the two. And while the relative speed of losses on casino games is acknowledged by some of the government’s language in the white paper, the nature of those losses is not.

There is a reason why online slot machines and roulette games are addictive by design. The bright colours and graphics, the flashing lights and sounds and above all the lightning speed of play are gaudy wrapping paper around what is, at its heart, a dull, mechanical process of separating gamblers from a percentage of their stake. The margin is fixed, by the same maths that holds the universe together. The more you gamble, the more certain it is that you will end up as a loser, so they want to keep you spinning, semi-hypnotised and several times a minute, for hours on end.

Most racing punters end up as losers too, of course, but the nature and pattern of those losses will often be entirely different. Some punters bet only on major meetings such as Cheltenham, others only on football or perhaps a more low-profile sport where they feel their knowledge gives them an edge.

And even the super-shrewdies who are sharp enough to make their betting pay long term are all but certain to hit a losing streak at some point that triggers an affordability check, never mind that they are probably giving a bit back at York in August when they made five times as much at Cheltenham in March.

The biggest gambling conglomerates have become hooked on the easy profits from gaming in the last 20 years, and fall over themselves to cross-promote gaming products to customers who initially sign up to bet on sport, as if it is just another way of having a punt. They even have the cheek to inform punters whose sports betting is restricted to pennies that they can gamble as much as they please on slots and roulette.

And racing, for the most part, has stood by and allowed it to happen. When £100-a-spin gaming machines in high-street betting shops toxified gambling’s image, industry figures swallowed – and, in some cases, parroted – the lie that thousands of betting shops would close, with disastrous results for racing’s Levy and media rights income, if stakes were cut to £2 a spin. They were, and they didn’t.

On that basis, an estimated loss to racing of between £8m and £14m as a result of affordability checks can perhaps be seen as the price to be paid for failing to stand up for betting and highlight the poisonous effects of gaming.

But that estimated loss could well be an underestimate, and there are already calls from some campaigners for the thresholds that trigger checks to be tightened. That is only ever likely to be a one-way process.

It is also unclear to what extent affordability checks will impact on a punter’s credit rating. If there is a chance that you will be denied a loan or a mortgage because you had a couple of bad days at Cheltenham, it will be a disincentive to open an account in the first place.

The consultation period on the White Paper before legislation is introduced has already started, and these are all points the BHA will presumably seek to raise in the weeks ahead.

But clear blue water between betting and gaming still seems unlikely, in the short to medium term at least. So on that basis, it might also be useful to press for a small fraction of the new £140m Statutory Gambling Levy, which is a very sensible feature of the government’s plans, to be spent on meaningful, definitive research to quantify the relative harmfulness of betting and gaming.

Gambling businesses have the necessary data at their fingertips – they can, after all, identify unprofitable racing punters after just three or four bets – and it should be freely available to any independent researcher who requires it. Then, and only then, we might be able to think about ways to finally purge the toxin of gaming from racing and betting.

April Singleton

Since starting this blog over 15 years ago, I have never gone a full calendar month without a post, and while it is tempting to wait until month-end, this one will keep that record intact. 

Some travel with both work and for pleasure has interrupted by normal routine, and technical challenges at work have meant having to be on calls for 12 hours through the night on occasion, but those problems seem to be mitigated, at least for now, even if the root cause hasn't yet been identified. Any readers who work in IT will understand the process.

While I will be away for another week next month with the long-delayed work trip to Phoenix finally approved, I'm home for a few days now just in time to update the April spreadsheet with its month-end numbers.

The first round of the NBA playoffs has pretty much passed me by, with the favourite Milwaukee Bucks already eliminated. Reigning champions Golden State Warriors face a Game Seven today needing to win in Sacramento versus the Kings in a game where the home side are favoured by just one point, and in Western Conference playoff games, this is historically a good situation for the Warriors with the visitors winning 11 of 15 such games, although the most recent three have all been losses.

In the NHL, there's a few Game Sevens with the Stanley Cup favourites Boston Bruins facing one tonight after being unable to eliminate the Florida Panthers in either game 5 or 6 of their series. The other series going to seven games are those between the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken (also tonight) and the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers who play tomorrow (Monday). 

As someone who often finds value in going against the perceived 'home ice' advantage, it's been a good post season so far with road teams winning 11 straight games at one point and an overall ROI of over 30%. 

Back soon with boring end-of-month updates for April and a look at how the new baseball rules appear to be playing out. 

Some Advantage

The 2023 MLB season opened yesterday but as I've already communicated to Sacred Manuscript subscribers, with all the rule changes coming in this season, I'm adopting a wait-and-see approach for now.

ESPN had a good article on this exact topic and is reproduced below. The link will take you to the original story but the key takeaway is the very last sentence - "There will be some advantage for bettors if they can figure it all out quicker than the market."

Meanwhile after two losing seasons, the Opening Day System did return to profitability with three winners out of four, although the one loser was a Divisional game, but a small profit for anyone playing along.

Major League Baseball's new rules didn't impact scoring significantly in spring training, and oddsmakers began the season without adjusting their numbers on runs scored, while taking a wait-and-see approach to the pitch clock and elimination of the infield shift.

MLB games have averaged 9.1 runs scored over the past five seasons. Last year's 8.57 runs per game was the lowest since 2015. Spring training games, with the new rules implemented, averaged 10.1 runs, down slightly from last year.

Pitchers have 15 seconds to throw a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds with a runner on base. Hitters must be in the batter's box with eight seconds on the pitch clock. Hitters are allowed one timeout per at-bat to reset the pitch clock. Pitchers are restricted to stepping off the rubber only twice per plate appearance, including for pickoff attempts. The rule resets if a runner advances during the same plate appearance. And larger bases are being used to increase the success rate on steals.

"We don't really see a direct correlation from the pitch clock to more scoring," said Randy Blum, who oversees baseball odds for the SuperBook in Las Vegas. "We were not planning on adjusting our totals off that."

Halvor England, BetMGM's lead baseball trader, expects the elimination of the traditional shift to increase scoring marginally, but also believes pitchers will have more control over the hitter during an at-bat because of the pitch clock.

"I think it's going to be a little more offsetting than people realize, almost a wash," Halvor said. "I don't anticipate there to be less scoring overall, but on a game-to-game basis, it's going to be very marginal."

The bigger bases being used this season, however, are a difference-maker in bookmakers' and bettors' eyes. Steals were up notably in success rate and volume -- nearly double from last spring training -- this year. Bettors expect the trend to continue.

The SuperBook offered a season-long prop on the over/under on most stolen bases by an individual player. Blum said the book opened the total at 50.5, a number that reflected about four to five more stolen bases than if the rule had not been in place. Still, sharp bettors took the over, causing the SuperBook to move the number to 52.5.

"That's one thing [larger bases] that we did adjust our numbers on based on the rule changes, and it seems to be something that the bettors are taking note of also," Blum said. "That was not necessarily a prop that in the past would get a lot of attention either way."

Joe Fortuna, a veteran professional bettor and baseball fan, said he did edge his numbers up on runs scored because of the rule changes and was looking to bet overs early in the season for multiple reasons, including potential pitchers' fatigue while working with the pitch clock.

"These guys, in April, might be a little bit out of shape, so I don't know if running 100 mph pitches up there every 15 seconds will make them tire out faster," Fortuna said. "The different rules all seemed to lean toward hitting to us."

Fortuna also examined which hitters faced the most infield shifts last season and pointed out left-handed batters like San Diego's Juan Soto, Texas' Corey Seager and Kansas City's Vinnie Pasquantino as ones who could benefit from its elimination.

"The shift is huge to me," Fortuna said. "We actually bet on Pasquantino to win MVP today at 250-1. He batted .295 last year and faced 93.8% three-man shifts. That was the highest."

For now, only one day into the season, bettors and bookmakers will be watching closely to see if there are any trends related to the new rule changes, but early on, it'll be a guessing game.

"There will be some advantage for bettors if they can figure it all out quicker than the market," Halvor said.

Aztecs, Owls, Hurricanes and Huskies

I ended the last post with a few lines about the end of season College Basketball tournament colloquially known as 'March Madness' and following the weekend's Sweet Sixteen (Round of 16 for most of us) and Elite Eight (Quarter-Finals for most of us), the excitement level in my house has risen dramatically with my wife's hometown Aztecs reaching the Final Four (Semi-Final for most of us) for the first time in their history, and as favourites (~1.8) to win their Saturday game against the Florida Atlantic Owls, they have a decent chance of making Monday's Championship Game (Final for most of us). 

I take full credit for their success after betting against them in both rounds! Florida Atlantic were 500-1 to win the National Championship at the start of the tournament, and are a number nine seed. The seeding system is a little odd because they have four of each seed number, four number ones, twos etc., so being a nine means ranked approximately 33rd to 36th, and as the tournament's "Cinderella" team, most of the USA will no doubt be supporting the underdogs. The reason for the four seeds is that the tournament is divided into four 'regions' of 16 teams each, with each region having its own 1-16 seeds.

With several upsets already, the highest seeded team left is UConn (University of Connecticut Huskies), a number four seed, with the San Diego Aztecs and Miami Hurricanes both five seeds. UConn are the only team to have reached this stage of the competition before having played five times previously winning four of them, and winning all four subsequent Finals, which is quite impressive. With an average winning margin so far of 22.5 points, it's hardly a surprise that they are favourites to win the championship at around 1.87. 

We only have data for nine competitions starting in 2013 but in Final Four (Semi-Final) matches, a total of 132.5 has historically been pivotal. Back the Overs when the total is above this number, and Unders when it's below it, and you'd have a 14-1 record with one Push. The totals are currently set at around 132 (Aztecs v Owls) and 149.5 for the later Hurricanes v Huskies game. 

Since I want to stay married, I take more than a passing interest in the Aztecs games, although the Arkansas Razorbacks will always be my college team, and this season the Aztecs' strength has been their defence. For example, in the Quarter-Final game they played Creighton who had previously averaged 77 points a game this season, and held them to 56 points. 

Retirement, Death, Anniversaries and NCAAB

It's been almost one month since my last update, and a lot has happened. The meeting in Phoenix I mentioned last month was delayed, I aged another year as did this blog, but most tragically of all one of my team at work passed away at the young age of 56. 

He'd booked a few days off work for a 'minor back surgery' and recovery, but he never made it out out of the anaesthetic. He went into liver failure, had some internal bleeding, extremely low blood pressure and passed away almost a week later. What made it even more tragic was that just two weeks prior to the surgery, his first grandchild had been born. 

All very sad, and one of those events that makes you reassess your life. When I heard from one of my Directors that he was having 'minor back surgery', I actually said to him that there was no such thing, thinking that he may have complications with his back, but never imagined the events that unfolded. 

With everything that was going on, I missed the February wrap-up and with the current month almost over, I'll combine the February and March summaries in a few days time. The blog turned 15 years old a couple of days ago, and I turned a little older than that. 

On April Fools Day three years ago, I wrote:

My trip to South Africa seems to have marked the end of an era and seems a long time ago now. I returned with a pretty firm retirement date of March 2021 in mind, but after a first quarter loss of 10.2% (a record) and a poor start to Q2, that date is looking unlikely. We'll see. One of the consequences of COVID-19 may well be an appreciation of what is really important in life, and while accumulating money is certainly important, it's only important to a point. It can't buy time.

As bad as March was, perspective is maintained by seeing that I am simply back to where I was last June, and last June I was pretty happy. In other words, things could always be a lot worse.

That 'firm retirement date' is still anything but. I had my annual review and while the percentage pay raise is fairly meaningless with my working days running out, the bonus, stock options and RSUs were of interest. As I've mentioned before, I'm in the rather enviable position of working from home most of the time, with 'working' consisting of a handful of Teams meetings with my afternoon calendar usually free by noon or early afternoon. The upside of walking away is minimal, but if / when they realise I don't do a lot and send me on my way with a severance package, I'll be quite happy. Speaking of walking, and the target of 2,023 miles in 2023 may need to be raised as I am already at 586 miles, putting those free afternoons to good use. 

First a little catching up to do, as while I reviewed the NFL's Small Road 'Dog System back in January, I don't believe I ever published the results of the similar College Football version.

Better late than never, and 'officially' we made a profit of 5.03 units (ROI 6.7% with a 41-34 record) but individual results will vary quite a lot in this sport with the matches available varying by sportsbook. The 'official' results are those that can be verified using the Killer Sports data. 

Over the past 18 seasons, the ROI is 9.2% in the recommended range with just two losing seasons, although two more would have been losers after accounting for the vig.

At the College level right now, all the focus is on 'March Madness', the end of season single elimination basketball tournament which is hugely popular. In recent years, Unders and the 'Dog have been the value bets with winning percentages of 55.3% and 53.6% respectively since 2016 although two years were lost due to the pandemic.

This season has seen that trend continue on the Totals with Unders hitting at a lovely 67%, but not so much joy for the 'Dogs with a 26-27-1 record. The tournament wraps up next weekend with the final on Monday 3rd April. Unfortunately my Arkansas Razorbacks were eliminated last night. 

League Cup Final Profile

It's a rare League (Carabao) Cup Final profile for today's Manchester United v Newcastle United match with the Draw priced as third favourite. 

Of the last 18 finals, only the 2106 match between Manchester City and Liverpool had this profile and the game finished 1:1. Of the four FA Cup Finals with this profile since 2004, two games ended as a Draw.  

Over those past 18 matches, the ROI on the Draw is 50% (+9.03 units) and only one underdog (Birmingham City v Arsenal in 2011) has won in that time. 

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter 2023

The annual letter from Warren Buffett to shareholders in Berkshire Hathaway Inc was published yesterday. It's always published on a Saturday, presumably to allow time for shareholders to read 144 pages of wit, humility, wisdom and numbers over the weekend. 

I own some of their 'B' class shares, and so far so good with with them up up 3.3% in 2022, a year where anything positive was a rarity, and up 35.8% since I bought them a little over two years ago: 

One of my best individual holdings continues to be Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway which I bought a little over two years ago and has quietly increased by a little over 37% in that time. It's not a jazzy holding, but it's a very solid one, and as regular readers will know, I'm a long time fan of Warren Buffett and his philosophy, although changes at the top for Berkshire Hathaway are unavoidable fairly soon with straight-talking vice-chairman Charlie Munger turning 99 yesterday.

The Class 'A' shares are currently priced at $461,705 and just one would be a rather significant percentage of my savings, but you only need to own a single 'A' or 'B' share to be eligible to attend the AGM in Omaha in person. 

While I have no plans to do so, the 'B' share is currently priced at a rather more manageable $304.02 and the AGM is a popular event with around 40,000 investors attending in person, and hotel rooms in town priced at more than triple the usual rate. 

Buffett's letters are always worth a read, and this year's is no exception. He pointed out that he's been investing for almost one-third of the country's existence, which is quite amazing. A couple of lines that caught my eye:

It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.

And this one on stock buybacks, which appears to be targeted at a certain US Senator:

The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases. 

The key point here is the clarification that the repurchases need to be made at value-accretive prices. In October, it was reported that Meta, formerly known as Facebook, conducted a $45 billion buyback initiative at $300 a share. The only slight problem with this was that the stock dipped below $90 not long after!  

The letter also had some good one-liners as usual:

The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.

Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.

Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.

There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.

You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.

Some good advice there for all of us.   

Sir Bernard Ingham

‘All right, Prime Minister,’ Ingham told her, ‘If that’s what you’re going to say I’m going to go outside and commit suicide.’ So she didn’t, and he didn’t.

I've mentioned a few times in this blog that I attended my first football match back in 1967 thanks to (later a Sir) Bernard Ingham, who was a neighbour across the road from my home in Old Lodge Lane, Purley. 

His son John was a similar age to me, and knocked on my front door one April Saturday morning asking if I would like to go to and watch football that afternoon. 

Parental permission was obtained, and the memories of that afternoon are forever seared in the memory. In those days Crystal Palace played in claret and blue, it was sunny afternoon, Palace won 2:1 (v Birmingham City), and I was hooked. 

As an event which changed my life, that afternoon was up there with the incident of the door handle, and it was personally sad to hear yesterday that Sir Bernard Ingham had passed away at the age of 90.

Long after I knew him personally, his comments about the Hillsborough disaster were of course indefensible, and his refusal to apologise for them after they were proven to be wrong even more unconscionable. 

Many will remember him negatively for his time as Press Secretary for Margaret Thatcher when she was Prime Minister, but when I knew him he was working as Press and Public Relations Adviser at the Board of Trade for Barbara Castle, and later for Tony Benn, and not long before moving south, he had stood as a Labour candidate for the Leeds City Council in 1965, and had a Labour / union background. 

He might have lost his way politically, but in regards to football it was the opposite as, when I first knew him, he was a Leeds United supporter, but he saw sense after a few visits to Selhurst Park and his son still goes to matches there. Perhaps seeing Leeds win just one of 17 games at Selhurst Park between 1966 and 1993 helped with the decision! With the Hillsborough comments in mind, it's an unfortunate coincidence that Palace host Liverpool tonight.  

Politics weren't much discussed on trips to the New Addington swimming pool on a Saturday morning, ten-year-olds have far more important things to talk about, but I do remember him getting a ticket for speeding as we left New Addington one day. Mind you, if you're at all familiar with New Addington you'll have some sympathy, as the desire to leave the place in a hurry isn't unusual! 

He also took me to my first Rugby Union match, though I'm not 100% sure where it was (I think Rosslyn Park), before they (the Inghams, not Rosslyn Park RFC),  relocated to the other side of Purley - the posh part - soon after. 

My parents, I think jokingly, often said they would never forgive him for converting their normal - I use the term loosely - son into a 'football crazy' boy!

I'll remember him as he was in the 1960s, a good dad, a good neighbour, and a man who certainly impacted my life in a way that I will forever be grateful for.  

Big Foot

With Superbowl LVII this weekend wrapping up the NFL season this evening, attention turns to baseball with Spring Training for the 2023 MLB season starting in less than three weeks. The Regular Season opens on March 29th, but significant changes to the 162 game schedule means that the usefulness of some of the data from previous seasons is, at best, questionable. 

Since the Divisions were increased to six in 1994 , almost half of a team's schedule was matches against a divisional opponent with playing up to 20 games a season against each of them. That all changes in 2023 with every one of the 30 teams playing against the other 29 during the season and the number of divisional games dropping from 76 to 52. Interleague games see the biggest increase, with teams going from 20 matchups to 46.

As I've written before, with the universal adoption of the Designated Hitter (DH) rule, there's no longer any difference between the American League and the National League and rumours are that MLB may be headed to a 32 team league with eight divisions of four teams as is the case with the NFL.

For comparison, the NBA currently has 30 teams (six divisions of five teams) and the NHL has four divisions of eight teams.

In addition to completely revamping the schedule, there are some significant rule changes regarding the introduction of a pitch clock, (including a limit on pickoff attempts), restrictions on defensive shifting, and the introduction of larger bases - one of the justification for the latter being that "players' feet are much bigger now than when the bases were designed". The famous 90 feet between bases is no more.

These rule changes should all result in higher scoring. The larger bases and pitch clock will make it easier for players to steal bases, and the shift changes will mean that "more balls will find open spots leading to a higher batting average on balls in play and more action on the field."

As for the change in schedules, the data (courtesy of Killer Sports) shows how there are big differences in outcomes depending on whether a match is a divisional game, an inter-league game or a non-divisional intra-league game.

For example, blindly backing all road favourites in regular season games against an opponent they beat in the previous game gives a losing ROI of -2.5% from almost 14,000 games, but in inter-league games where the selection is an American League team (i.e. playing without a DH) the ROI is 7.7%. Such discrepancies are likely to no longer exist in the future since most of this data is from the days when the leagues had different DH rules so the performance of National League teams is somewhat redundant. Yes, when they would play in an American League park, they would play AL rules, but with relatively few such games in their schedules, this wasn't something they were too focused on.

Back to the Superbowl and good luck if you think you can find an edge on the biggest game in the US sports calendar. The last NFL game I saw live was a Monday Night game in Philadelphia (vs. the Green Bay Packers) with my son so I shall be supporting the Eagles for the second time this weekend. My money is on them giving 1.5 points as my gut tells me they should win by a lot more, but as I said, it's highly unlikely I have any edge on this game.  

Points, SGPs and January

We had no luck for the small road 'dogs in the NFL Championship games last weekend, and as The Guardian summed up the Philadelphia Eagles v San Francisco 49ers game:

Well, we were all expecting a closer game, but the 49ers had ridiculously poor injury luck with their quarterbacks and far too many costly penalties, so we ended up with a rout instead. That happens sometimes.

The Kansas City Chiefs v Cincinnati Bengals game was much closer, but we lost that one by a single point. C'est la vie. On to the Superbowl where the Eagles will play the Chiefs on Sunday week in Glendale, Arizona and wrap up what has been another profitable season in this sport. I am actually scheduled to fly to Phoenix for a work meeting later this month, but unfortunately a few days after the game so I shall miss out on the excitement that accompanies the event and my company will miss out on paying ridiculous sums of money for my hotel room.

ESPN had an interesting article covering the rise in interest in SGPs, Same Game Parlays which some of you may enjoy reading.

The days of placing a bet before a game and rooting for your team to cover the point spread are waning. The modern American betting market is full of player props, in-game betting and same-game parlays. Not even the long odds and the bookmakers' cushy margins are causing bettors to shy away from them. As we approach Super Bowl LVII, SGPs are as popular as ever.

This season, 46% of customers who bet on the NFL with a Kambi sportsbook placed a same-game parlay and 28% of all pre-game bets placed during the regular season were SGPs.

January is now in the books, and the EPL Draws had a profitable month (+1.19 units) with three winners from nine selections. In Spain's Segunda División, the similar Draw strategy had an even better month, with 19 selections generating 8 winners and 3.8 units of profit, while in the Bundesliga, the laying systems in the top division had a small profit, unfortunately more than offset by the loss in the Second Division resulting in a net loss of 2.21 units, although still (slightly) profitable overall on the season. 

The US winter sports continued to be a challenge in the new year, with the NHL and NBA systems all taking losses overall, although the NBA Totals System managed a small profit in January. Unfortunately February has started with four successive losses, so any hopes that the tide may have turned have been rapidly squashed.

Why the NBA has changed so much this season is debatable but the game is changing fast as reported by Axios last month:

Now for the boring, personal stuff. The bigger picture for January was quite positive, with my spreadsheet showing a 2.73% overall gain, and I'm now back to within a few hundred pounds of where I was at the end of October! Tesla was up 40% after a dire few months, Bitcoin was up almost 47% and Lloyds Bank close to 18% and the only real negative was that my company stock price was down. It's annual review and bonus month in February, so hopefully any options and RSUs will be awarded at lower strike prices. Retirement is proving elusive.

While the 40% gain for Tesla sounds impressive, the price is still about 50% off its high. As Ben Carlson puts it:

Dry Veganuary was successful, and while I wasn't strictly vegan during the month, consuming a little fish and cheese, I did avoid any meat or poultry all month and this, combined with walking / running 227.9 miles, resulted in a weight loss of 16.8 lbs, and my weight is now back to where it last was 4,100 days ago! Not sure how long it will stay here given the upcoming travel and a certain amount of catching up on my social life after a quiet January, but rest assured, you will know in four week's time. 

The correlation between weight gain / loss and calories ingested continues to be strong, with exercise making just a small difference. Consume fewer than 2,200 calories a day and I'll lose weight; more than that and I'll gain weight. And curiously the correlation between alcohol consumption and weight is strong too... 

Cursed Profits and 17 Years of Benford

Three winners out of four last weekend for the 'Curse' / Unders selections, although with both rested teams winning their games, 'curse' may be a little too strong a word. Hopefully some of you were along for the ride.

This weekend (Sunday) features the Championship games for the two conferences, with the Philadelphia Eagles at home to the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs v Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC. 

Both home teams are small favourites - the Eagles are currently giving 2.5 points while the Chiefs are giving just 1.5 points and as in the regular season, the value in these games is on the 'dog. 

All-time in playoff games, when the Road 'Dog is getting 3 points or fewer, they are 18-5-2 ATS, and 12-1-1 in the NFC. As always, a caution that these are small sample sizes. 

At 3.4 the Eagles are currently favourites to win the Superbowl in two weeks' time. 

There were also a couple of winners for the 'Close' Draw System in the EPL last weekend, with two of the three selections finishing as Draws, and all three as Under 2.5. These are still down on the season though, by 4.15 units from the 38 selections so far and with no games this weekend, that won't be changing any time soon.

Finally, for those of us who love our numbers, here are the updated numbers for my daily betting profits (and occasional losses) from 2006 through 2022 for Benford's Law: 

Seventeen years! Anyway, the numbers correlate pretty well, at least for 1 though 7, before they go a little wobbly. 

NFL Playoffs; Rest and Grass

Some of you may recall the post from last October which looked at whether receiving a bye was a gift or a curse, but as a reminder it's that weekend of the year in the NFL where the number one seeds from the regular season resume after a couple of weeks off. The sample size of games where one team has 7 or more days of rest than their opponent is not large of course, just 45 games, but I noted then that:

Another major sport that rewards its top regular season performers with a bye week is the NFL, and here the data since 2002 shows that the rested team underperforms with just a 36.4% record ATS.

The two rested teams this weekend are the Philadelphia Eagles (v New York Giants) and Kansas City Chiefs (v Jacksonville Jaguars) who are giving about 7.5 points and 9 points respectively. 

Both games are being played on grass, and while Unders is historically the bet on this surface in playoff games, in games where the home team has an extra week of rest, this has been the outcome in 64.3% of 28 such previous games. 

The Eagles v Giants game is also a divisional game and by now, we should all know about opposing the favourite in such games.