Saturday, 23 August 2008

Football Favourite-Longshot Bias

Towards the end of the football 2007-08 season, I paper traded a laying system that I have been developing for 391 matches.

Although this was a limited sample, the selection criteria did show some interesting trends which indicated that in the matches I selected, there was a significant favourite-longshot bias. I'm not going to get too carried away, but I am going to continue monitoring these matches and will play with a small bank for added interest.

Statistically, the system had 277 winners from 391 selections (70.84%) and made a (pre-commission) profit of £47.44. There were two Longest Losing Sequences of 5, although since many matches take place at the same time, and in many cases the sequence is alphabetical, this may not be too relevant.

Early lay selections for today are Leeds United and Rushden and Diamonds.

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