Tuesday 9 December 2008


Every once in a while, an opportunity presents itself that looks too good to be true. Tonight was one such occasion (again).

Basketball, and with 32 seconds to go, the Miami Heat v Charlotte Bobcats game stands at 95-91, and both teams are in the penalty.

One point is needed for the game to go Over. Now in a close finish such as this, the losing team will foul intentionally, putting the other team on the line for free-throws hoping that one or both will be missed, affording them the opportunity of a quick score at the other end, thus closing the gap.

The Overs was available for a larger sum than I have available for backing (I have never requested Betfair to raise my default £5,000 exposure limit since that is usually more than enough for my needs) at 1.1 but before I could react, it vanished.

Cursing my old age and consequent slow reactions, I was about to check the handicap market when the same huge sum popped up again at 1.12. This time there was no holding me back. The bet was matched, and at that same instant the Heat fouled. Two free throws coming up.

My cup of tea went flying, the cat moved with lightning speed to avoid the steaming contents, and my adrenaline kicked in to rev my heart rate up a few notches.

How ever good the value is, I still get a little excited when I am exposed... no, let me re-phrase that.

Even if I know the bet is tremendous value, I still get a little nervous wondering what key factor have I missed, but I'm getting better at trusting my Blink* instinct.

What WAS the true value at that moment? I would say that 1.01 would be close, for even if BOTH free throws were missed, the Bobcats would still foul the Heat and put them on the line and so on...

Anyway, the first free-throw went in, and that was that, though I wish I'd had more available to bet with. For the record the game actually ended 100-96.

* Blink by Malcolm Gladwell is about the first two seconds of looking--the decisive glance that knows in an instant. Add it to your Xmas list.


Richard said...

Well done matey. By sheer chance I've just started reading Gladwell's Blink - just read the firts few chapters - and am hoping to get some others for Chrimbo. I always find with trading and betting that first instinct is quite often right, just helps having an uber fast computer when u do have those urges!



Cassini said...

Thanks for the comment - and enjoy the book. As you say, that first instinct is usually right. (I wouldn't agree always!). There is something subconsciously going on that says "YES, BET NOW!" but our conscious is trying to be sensible and says "Hold on a sec. Let's think about this" but in the world of in-play betting, one doesn't have the luxury to analyse it all in depth so that Blink instinct is vital. Good luck to you.