Wednesday, 3 December 2008

Roulette System - Win Or Your Money Back

I have a Roulette system, one that comes with a money-back guarantee. Look at the table layout from above - notice anything strange?

I think the 19 reds and 17 blacks means that the evens on Red is a fair deal (and if it wasn't an American wheel with the double zero, we could all give up our day jobs and turn pro).

Sadly, I suspect that were we to travel to St Helena, we would be disappointed and find that the layout in use actually has a black 28 and not a red one. Darn it, so close.

Now why was someone so keen on value looking at a roulette site I hear you ask?

I shall explain. Years ago, when I was a young man, (ok, so it was many years ago), I read an article, the gist of which was that because the numbers on the roulette table were not spread evenly (e.g. the middle column has 8 blacks to 4 reds, the 3rd column vice-versa), then it MUST be possible to combine bets to produce a winning system.

I am still waiting to hear of such a system.

The truth is that NO bet at roulette is at true odds, and no combination of two or more bets at unfavourable odds will produce a winning system.

I was reminded of this when reading a post on the Betfair "General Betting" forum where someone named Slicer is claiming to have 'discovered' the Holy Grail of football betting - a guaranteed 100% system on football by placing two bets, with the occasional third bet. Except that sometimes the third bet is actually more than one bet!

Bet 1 allegedly is to lay the Half-Time 0-0 score. Bet 2 is allegedly to back the Full-Time 0-0 score. Bets 1 and 2 to return equal profits, but Bet 3 is the subject of much debate and apparently many hours of wasted time.

With 553 posts to date , it seems there are a lot of gullible people around. Quite simply, for this to be true, then one market MUST be out of line with the true odds, and if this were the case, the market would soon pick up on it. Once again, no combination of unfavourable bets can possibly produce a winning system, but nevertheless, the 'hunt' goes on with conferences being held to discuss various ideas.

Good luck to them. I can personally think of better things to do with my spare time, (not that I have any), but the 'discoverer' must be having a quiet chuckle at how naïve some people are.


Anonymous said...

Hi Cassini,

Really enjoy your blog.

Did you ever read "Thirteen against the Bank" by Norman Leigh?

It was the first book to start me on my gambling adventures.

If nothing else it made me look at all games of chance in terms of probability. Slot machines, Blackjack, Roulette, Bookmakers odds e.t.c.

There is an opportunity to use probability to find a value position in Blackjack by card counting but no such possibility in roulette.

The beauty of sports trading is that every day we can use probability to find "value" positions. Once you have that value position you should keep it while it remains value or sell it back to the market at a price which is poor value for the person who is buying your position.

Keep probability on your side and everything else should fall into place


Cassini said...

Thanks for the comment. Yes I have read "Thirteen Against The Bank" back in the 80s. I remember it well - it made quite an impression on me too.

When I go to casinos it's for fun, not to make money, and I play Craps mostly. It's a lot of fun, and the house edge is pretty small if you stick to the smart bets so I often manage to walk away with a profit. And if I lose, at least I have a good time doing it!

Blackjack I just don't have the patience for to be honest! I've tried counting, but it always seems that just as the deck might be getting favourable, they re-shuffle. And slots is just brainless.

You are spot on with your comments on sports betting and value. It's all opinion, and who doesn't enjoy pitting their wits against someone else and coming out in front?

In fact, often the most annoying part of losing on the Exchanges is not so much the money, but that someone was smarter than me!

Good luck.