Thursday 11 February 2010

Two Stepping

Thanks (mostly) for the comments again.

The link to the ratings on the page was interesting. I’d actually considered using these ratings a couple of years ago, but in the end decided that I would be unlikely to be able to find an edge using raw information that is publicly available. It was interesting to compare mine with theirs though, and note some significant differences such as Burnley who are ranked 13th in my ratings, while statto have them bottom at 20th. My biggest climbers right now are Stoke City, who have performed to or better than expectation in their last six games, whereas Statto have Birmingham City as the top trend team right now. Mind you, this was before tonight's results.

Last night’s results weren’t great, in fact I ended the night down slightly. In the Premier League, five teams were expected to win by one goal, and the two home selections did just that, including the best value bet of Arsenal at 2.22 which was good, but disappointingly, none of the three away selections could oblige. The draw at West Ham didn’t pan out as expected either, but we’re not going to win them all.

In Scotland, my big winners were Celtic who ten years on from that classic headline "Super Caley Go Ballistic, Celtic Are Atrocious" game, won by the predicted margin against Hearts, the draw between the holiest teams in football - St Mirren and St Johnstone, which was expected, as well as East Stirling who were expected to win by 2 over Elgin City and did just that, but there’s no backing the Correct Score in this league so I had to be content with the Match Odds!

The games that were expected to be 2 goal wins this week have an outstanding record. The only losing selection was Dundee United, who should have beaten Hamilton by two but instead lost by that margin! The full results for those interested are here, but this is to point out an exceptional run rather than imply that I have found a trend that is likely to continue this favourably:

Manchester City v Bolton Wanderers 2-0;
Cardiff City v Peterborough United 2-0;
West Bromwich Albion v Scunthorpe United 2-0;
Swindon Town v Oldham Athletic 4-2;
Bury v Macclesfield Town 2-1;
Stevenage Borough v Mansfield Town 3-1;
Celtic v Hearts 2-0;
Dundee United v Hamilton 0-2;
East Stirling v Elgin City 2-0.

Quite remarkable really. Overall, two goal expected winners win by that margin 43% of the time so 7 out of 9 is well above expectations.

The Serie A ratings are continuing to be formed. I started at the end of 2008-09 and am adjusting them with results from this season. As of the end of October, the exact predictions are hitting at 31%, not bad, in fact better than most divisions, but it's early days yet.


Anonymous said...

Just wondered why you dont put up the scottish predictions in advance?

Anonymous said...

unlucky last night by the way, some surprise results all round!

Unknown said...

Hi Cassini,

A couple of questions, if you don't mind me asking..

Firstly, how do find Football Elite? Their website seems ok and fair ROI over the years.

Secondly, without giving your major secret away, what is your main basis for your ratings? Any info would be appreciated.

Anonymous said...

Hi Cassini,
The ratings are from the ELO rating formula(right?),what i want to ask is if you keep the records and update them by yourself or there is an internet database or service that they provide the ratings.
I think you should change the blog's name to gold all over...hahaha. Costas