Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Spreading Too Thin


Hopefully you all followed my Elo predictions over the past couple of days. A one goal win for Valencia over Getafe yesterday as predicted was followed by a bullseye in the Manchester United v West Ham United game paying off on the Correct Score market market at 8.6, although I covered the Any Unquoted also since this was expected to be a 3 goal winner and I wanted 4 goals on my side.

For the four teams expected to win by 2 today, I backed the 2-0, 3-1 and Any Unquoted prices, and the net result after bullseyes at Leeds United and Swindon Town? A massive 4.25%. The problem is that 2-0 at Leeds was just 7.0, and the Any Unqoted at Swindon was just 5.8. Why they couldn't be happy with a 3-1 win I don't know! Still, 4.25% is a decent return by most standards.

Given that value on any one bet is hard to find, never mind two or three, it goes against the grain somewhat to cover up to three outcomes in the Correct Score market. Knowing that at least two bets will lose just doesn't feel right.

Mind you, some punters have no qualms about covering no less than 7 of the 17 outcomes in five different bets! (See above). How there can be overall value in that approach beats me.

For sure, you'll hit a lot of winners, but they have to carry so many losers that long term, it's a losing strategy.

So tomorrow, and Crystal Palace face the prospect of going down by 3 at Aston Villa. Tottenham Hotspur will beat Bolton Wanderers by 2, and West Bromwich Albion will beat Reading by just 1. Cup games though, so beware.

In the Champions League, I have Chelsea by 1 at Internazionale, and draws at Fiorentina and Udinese in Serie A.

4 comments:

vital Statistix said...

Just want to agree with your comment re covering 7 scores. I know some will argue this is trading but this just means you not only lose value entering the trade you also lose value exiting. I actually tried this approach and the spread in the correct score market in play was just too big for me. Still the chap's P&L is getting bigger everyday and that is what is important

The Dark Horse said...

Hi Cassini,
I sometimes cover more than seven scorelines as the game progresses! The initial scorelines that I cover are only entry points from which to move green from as goals go in. This is spreading it only thinner, I agree. But I am not trying to hit the correct score bang on in my initial coverage, sometimes I make a profit by being nowhere near the final score. I've had one relatively big hit (for me) in the Porto vs Braga game recently but my P&L is still going up as Vital Statistix says.
I deliberately post my methodology post-game for input such as yours so that I may consider tweaking it a little. Perhaps we can judge my strategy over the long-term later in the year? You are far cleverer than me at defining "edges" and "value" it seems. Your input is always interesting, informative and appreciated. All the best.

Anonymous said...

Yes the thing with darkhorses method is you can still lock in profit even if you dont hit the actual score.

The Dark Horse said...

Hi again Cassini, Just another small comment, I am usually out of the trade well before the final whistle too. All the best.TDH