Saturday, 20 February 2010

Staying True


I just noticed that the last post was the 500th I have posted on here. Had I known, I might have made the effort to be a little more business like, but as you may have noticed, I'm a little bit different. There's always room for a little humour in life.

Not feeling too much like laughing right now though. As I posted earlier, my Elo ratings in the early game today predicted a one goal win for Manchester United. Then I get the Short List bets from Football Elite who tip Everton at 5.0. I decided to sit the game out knowing that if I backed both, the draw would come in, but by doing so missed out on a great priced winner.

A little happier about the results at Arsenal (v Sunderland) and Wolverhampton Wanderers where Arsenal and Chelsea both won by the expected two goal margin to continue some nice winners in the Correct Score markets for these 2 goal teams. West Ham United also won, but by 3 and not 1 over Hull City.

Reluctantly, in Germany, I am opposing my selections given that the form there seems to be unreliable. Today saw a lay of Borussia Dortmund lose as they ran out 4-1 winners (expectancy was 2), but every other prediction was happily wrong with winning lays as follows:

The draw at Cologne 3.45 (L 1-5, and typical of the wild results this league throws up)
Hamburg 1.57 (expected to win by 2, drew 0-0)
Mainz 2.1 (expected to win by 1, drew 0-0)
Bayern Munich 1.4 (expected to win by 1, drew 1-1).

More later - lots of football to keep an eye an, but a quick mention of how quickly fortunes can change in the game of trading. Three nights ago I had my biggest loss in three months when a value lay of the Utah Jazz didn't pan out and I lost well over four figures. As often still seems to happen, the following night saw some poor decisions and another, but smaller loss, as the Boston Celtics won by 1 point over the Los Angeles Lakers, and just as confidence was waning and I was facing the prospect of NOT paying any Premium Charge next week, along comes a huge sum of money last night wanting to back the Denver Nuggets at 1.6 while they are tied in the fourth quarter at a visibly strong and confident looking Washington Wizards. (Body language can be most illuminating at times). Those are the bets I will take all day, and in a moment, well - a few tension filled minutes, the losses of two nights, and a little more, were erased with my biggest profit since October.

Mind you, with my big win from the Microsoft Lottery coming any day, I should probably be a little more relaxed about the occasional big loss.

Now for some draws in France, except in Boulogne!

3 comments:

Mully said...

Happy 500th Cass!

Edgehunters said...

Hi Cassini
Well done on hitting the five hundred post mark. I have only written five so five hundred is hard to imagine. I have three questions to ask if you don't mind.

The first is do you think blogging helps or hinders your betting.

The second is have you ever felt like quitting blogging.

The third is would you consider adding my blog to your blogroll I have already added yours to mine.

thanks
mark

Cassini said...

Thanks Mully - on to the 1,000...

Mark -

1) Do you think blogging helps or hinders your betting.

I don't think it makes too much difference really, but if anything it probably helps. I find it's a good exercise to put down in words some ideas and thoughts that you have, but then I enjoy writing. I can't see any way that it hinders my investing.

2)Have you ever felt like quitting blogging?

Not really. Some days I just don't feel I have anything to say, so I just don't say anything. I don't feel that I have to post every day. Like I said, I enjoy writing, so it doesn't ever feel like a chore. If it did, or I felt like I had run out of things to say, I'd give it up, but I'm aware of the responsibility I have as the write or the top sports investment blog out there... (just kidding)

3) Your blog has been added. Early days, but yours has the same feel as mine. Far more interesting than those that just list P/Ls without any commentary. Good luck with it.