All About Pete

With the Champions League and French League both reaching their conclusion this past weekend, the ratings and other numbers are now final for the season. 

With the Strong Draws finishing with one more winner from two selections, the total for this system for 2011 is 24 from 69 selections (34.8% - average price 3.44), and a profit of 13.45 points with an ROI of 19.49%. Only half-a-season of tracking these selections, but they compare well to Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster system which, for the full season, went 38 from 119 (31.9%), with an ROI (by my calculations) of 13%. 

Pete does handicap himself by sticking to the EPL (or lower English leagues when there are no EPL games) and by 'having' to find three draws a week. As I've written before, some weeks there may be none, other weeks possibly ten, so the chances are that either he is reaching to find selections, or he is leaving winners on the table. I prefer the more freestyle approach of picking selections based on their merit, and if there are no selections or twenty selections, so be it.

Teamprofit asked "Interesting. What do you look for when spotting these candidates?" and the answer is that I use an Elo based rating system to tell me the matches for which a draw would leave the ratings for both teams unchanged (or almost unchanged). Over the past two seasons, this has proven to be a strong indicator, and while long losing runs can be unsettling, at 3.4+ per winner, a strike rate north of 30% is a long-term winner.

Once again, the Premium Charge is a factor with my Total Charges dipping to below 18.3% following last weeks big (for me) win. Looking for a "win some / lose slightly less" system to mitigate the charge, I've been following Pete Nordsted's baseball selections, and they are performing rather well. I've only been following them since April 18th, and the 54 selections since then have gone 27-27 and are showing a profit of 3.27 points, (ROI 6%). Pete posted an update while I was away which is worth a read if you are interested in baseball betting. 

Betting on baseball is arguably trickier in April and May than later in the season than once form is a little more established, so it will be interesting to see if the success continues. Almost all the research shows that a system backing the underdogs will be more successful than one backing the favourites, but as in football, there is a point where it pays to back the short-priced favourite. I first identified this back in the 2001 season when I had too much time on my hands, and I believe it still holds true - probably for the same reason that I suspect it holds true in football.