Sunday, 18 December 2011

Simples

I found this gem of a system for playing the Under / Over 2.5 Goals markets. The only slight problem I see with it is the complete absence of any mention of value, and the assertion that an Under or Over is, on occasion, 'certain'. Other than that, it's quite brilliant. I am seriously thinking of abandoning my strategy of calculating goal expectancies to find an edge in these markets.

My name is Vincent and I want to share my betting strategy with you. I play on over/under 2.5 goals in football matches like this:

I take into consideration the last 4 matches of each team involved in the current game (that's 8 matches in total).
If a game has ended with an over 2.5 score I give it +0.5 points.
If both teams scored in that match I give it another +0.75 points (even if the match ended under 2.5).
If the game ended under 2.5 I give it -0.5 points.
If one of the teams didn't score in the match (even if it was over 2.5) I give it -0.75 points.

In the end I sum up all those points and I get a positive or negative result. To give an example:

match results 4:2 2:1 2:2 0:0 2:0 2:1 3:1 3:0

For the above matches my calculation would look like this:

+0.5+0.75+0.5+0.75+0.5+0.75-0.5-0.75-0.5-0.75+0.5+0.75+0.5+0.75+0.5-0.75=+3.5 points.

That would mean to put a 3.5/10 units bet on over 2.5 goals. The maximum results are +10 and -10 points. That would mean a certain over 2.5, respectively under 2.5 goals match.

I usually place a bet only if I get a minimum +/-5 points result. So, for example, if I get a +6 I place a 6/10 units bet on over 2.5 goals.
Well, perhaps not - the Manchester City v Arsenal game this afternoon was highlighted as a value Under bet, with my calculations on this outcome 2.13, and available to back at 2.38. By half-time I had layed off 75% of my risk, and was wishing I'd layed it all off when the game opened up after Manchester City's 53' opening goal. "Goals change games", but the storm was weathered, and in the end it was a good (betting) result.

There was just the one XX Draw Selection this weekend, which was AC Ajaccio v Stade Rennais, and frustratingly, this was a winner as late as the 83' (trading at 1.38, from a pre-game 3.85) before ending 1-0. At least there was the small consolation of a win for the Unders at 1.9.

I shall update the Tipster Table once all the matches are concluded. Time for some NFL now.

1 comment:

RepĆ³rter Dissidente said...

Good site with tutorials, resources and good tips on about to start betting - this is specific about U\O 2,5

http://www.soccerwidow.com/betting-maths/tutorial/soccerwidow-betting-course-betting-on-underover-x-goals/