Sunday, 22 April 2012

Overtime Handicap

For those of us used to our bets applying to the length of the normal game - i.e. excluding extra-time, it does seem a little strange that bets in the NBA apply to the full length of the game, with points added during any overtime periods (and there can be several) included. Many a seemingly solid Under bet has been lost due to a game going into overtime, and the same happens with the handicaps on occasion.

The game Peter mentioned in his Tweet was the Utah Jazz v Orlando Magic, and readers of this blog will know that the Jazz are fighting hard for a play-off spot. My bet was on Betfair, where the Jazz were giving 'only' 8.5 - still a large spread to cover, but in front of their home fans, I fancied the Jazz to take care of a Magic side missing Dwight Howard, and who have already secured their own play-off spot. 

In the end, it was the Magic who surpassed themselves, with the Jazz perhaps a little fortunate to take the game to overtime. Incidentally, Magic games are often good for trading - with their three point shooting ability, a game can change fast. You might think it fair to settle bets on points totals and handicaps at this point, but that's not how it works, so the OT lifeline was thrown for us Jazz backers, and the Jazz took full advantage, ultimately winning by 10 points. I seem to be on the opposite end of Peter's NBA bets more often than not these days!
The Jazz have a crunch game against the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night - expect them to win another close game with both teams scrambling for that last play-off spot in the West.

A good weekend for the XX Draw 'Extended' Selections, with no less than 5 draws from 11 selections so far this weekend. The three 'Classic' selections all had just one goal in them - so no draws, but at least the profit from backing these as Unders moves up to 26.28 points (ROI 19.5%).
XX Draws (Extended)

2 comments:

AL said...

Cass, you're a numbers man, whats the ROI on opposing Liverpool in the league this season?
>1000% or somewhere in the stratosphere?
much love, AL

BigAl said...

Interesting post on the bet angel blog about draws.

I have no idea which type of games are included in the sample and over what period of time the sample was gathered.

Nice line from the blog: "The upshot of this data is even if you had your value judgement completely wrong you could have been fooled into thinking you had stumbled on some amazing new system, or that you were the god of tipsters."

I think that comment is referring to someone laying the draw blindly over the course of this sample.

But judging by the graph, the same comment could probably also be applied to someone who has had success backing draws in the last few thousand matches of the sample.

Make of that what you will.