Saturday, 28 April 2012

Norwich City v Liverpool

Some big movements pre-game in the Norwich City v Liverpool game this afternoon. My own numbers have Liverpool at 1.77, a price that most people consider very short. My spreadsheet of course doesn't know that this is a meaningless game for both teams, or that Liverpool have a big game coming up next week. The price of 1.77 is based on Liverpool's rating, and on their recent form - not just results, but taking into consideration other factors. In essence, Liverpool have deserved better results than they have achieved. With a little over 90 minutes to kick-off, Liverpool are trading at around 1.82 after being matched as high as 2.26 and as low as 1.8. I also have the Overs as value here.

The game that I was most interested in this afternoon was the Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United game, with both teams taking the match seriously. I mentioned a few posts ago that along with Liverpool, Wigan were a team that I rate higher than their league position might suggest, and priced by my spreadie at 1.95 and available at 3.0 a couple of days ago, this was a huge value bet. The game is not yet over, but at 3-0 it's looking good. Make that 4-0. Off to walk the dogs!

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