Thursday, 26 April 2012

Euro Club Index

The Euro Club Index website came to my attention recently via Twitter, and I was looking at their assessment for next Monday's big game. Their probability estimates work out to Home 2.5, Away 3.125 and Draw 3.57.

The Betfair prices at the time of writing are Home 2.21, Away 3.625 and Draw 3.675, giving implied probabilities of 45%, 28% and 27% respectively. (For anyone unsure as to what 'implied probability' means, the Betting Expert wrote a post on this topic recently).

My prices for this match are 2.04, 3.93 and 3.93 - implied probabilities of 49%, 25%, and 25%. The market expects more goals from Manchester United than my spreadsheet does - 1.36 versus my 1.18.

The Euro Club Index (ECI) calculates the Home / Away / Draw probabilities from their ratings for each club. My approach is to use the ratings as one parameter, but also to factor in the recent form of each team, come up with a goal expectancy for each team, and calculate the prices for each score, and from that the odds for a Home, Away or a Draw.

The ECI updates the ratings based solely on the result, but I think this is too simplistic an approach.

Finally, Michael Jordan's Charlotte Bobcats play their last game of the season tonight, and a loss at the New York Knicks will see them finish with the worst ever record (percentage-wise) in the NBA. Seven wins from 58 to date, and a current losing streak of 22 games - Knicks are 1.56, Why so long? Possibly because the market considers the Knicks may want to tank this game and face the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the play-offs. Unfortunately for the Knicks, that plan most likely won't work. They hold the tie-breaker with the 76ers, who would also be happier to face Chicago. The 76ers play at the Detroit Pistons (already eliminated) and opened at 2.1 to win this game. Since then, they have drifted out to 5.1. A loss guarantees the Bulls play Philadelphia next week.

Ah, the risks / opportunities of end of season games.

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