Thursday 12 April 2012

Bologna v Cagliari

Another very short priced draw in Serie A tonight, as tends to happen every year as Spring arrives.

Bologna and Cagliari shared the points in a 1-1 draw back in November, and at the time of writing, the price on another draw is just 2.78. The corresponding fixture finished 2-2 last season. Bologna are no stranger to this - a game at home to Cesena last May was priced at 1.4 with bookmakers, at least those who offered prices, result? 0-0. If the game is played 'fairly', there is value in the Unders at 1.68, and I have Bologna priced at 2.2, (2.68 available), but I prefer my sports to be played in the right spirit.

Liam Brady:

When a draw suits both teams in Italy, the game will end in a draw. It's all to do with the mentality of the Italian people. They see nothing wrong in such an arrangement.
Funnily enough, since I started my Elo based ratings about three years ago, in Serie A there have been 43 matches where the home team is favoured by 0.6, and 18 of those have resulted in draws - an implied price of 2.39 - so perhaps that 2.78 is value after all.
Update: A little more research shows that last season there were 17 matches in Serie A where the draw was priced at 2.8 or lower. Four matches involved Bologna, and four involved Cagliari. Of those 17 matches, 7 finished as draws, and 11 as Unders.

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