Friday 6 February 2015

Dunning-Kruger (2)

A quiet midweek, with just six entrants active. The big winner and loser was Cassini, whose Bundeslayga system made 2.44 points and now leads the February monthly competition, but whose Value Selections lost 3.00 points. Jamie A was the only other profitable entry (+0.16 points), with Mortimer, Football Elite and Talkies Tips all making modest losses. The changes from the weekend are shown below:

Overall the FTL is now down by 25.31 points, but that will change as the entries for this weekend are already flooding in. Which direction the change is towards remains to be seen.

A couple of other items to mention, and one was this question from Laurie on Twitter:
So what's the beef between you and sotdoc? Personal or analytical?
Whether or not this means Sotty is alive and well and continuing to comment on this blog isn't clear, although he is certainly a frequent visitor, but my reply was:
I don't know Jonny personally, but his logic is certainly flawed, and he is incapable of rational argument. Any criticism is taken as a personal 'attack' and it's hard to take him seriously when he lies about involving the police!
I think Jonny probably means well and tries hard,  but unfortunately he just doesn't have the mental capacity to understand when his ideas are refuted. However clearly you try to explain how and why his logic is flawed, he just doesn't get it. He's a good example of the Dunning-Kruger effect which proposes that, for a given skill, incompetent people will:
fail to recognize their own lack of skill;
fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
As Dunning put it:
If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent. The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is.
My old friend Matthew had a comment on the FTL:
I think the FTL has now assembled enough data points for some investment fund style charts for each tipster with a benchmark line added. I thought the benchmark could be the combined portfolio of the bounty boys? Presumably you could then become some sort of football betting investment adviser taking a rebate from the tipster for each client you sign up to them them (1% of annual membership fee in question?). I envisage slick PDFs and elaborate headed notepaper.
With 6,446 selections to date, there is certainly a lot of data to look at. The Bounty Boys portfolio is currently showing an ROI% of 1.74% after 703 selections which isn't bad when you consider that the prices are taken from Pinnacle and can usually be bettered:
The numbers are also likely a little low given than Skeeve has barely started warming his engine with just 39 selections to date. More on this topic later I feel, but I have to leave now, and order some elaborate headed notepaper.

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