Sunday, 9 August 2015

60, Sequences End And Train Wrecks Predicted

My previous insightful post on the quality of Australian sport (a rather timely post it could be said, following their Ashes performance), drew this response from Steve M (Daily 25) on Twitter:

As Crystal Palace's Steve Parish commented in his The Times interview last week:
“The Premier League receives £753 million from the 212 TV stations overseas per year for the right to show the games. That’s more than Serie A, La Liga, the French League, the Bundesliga, the NBA, the NFL and the baseball [MLB] for their overseas rights put together. That is just staggering. We have one of the greatest products in the world.
By way of contrast, the AFL is watched in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and Ireland by an average viewing audience of 60 - although this number climbs to 61 if Seamus's sciatica is playing up and he can't sleep. Coincidentally, the average viewer age is also 60. 60... Now where have I seen that number before? For anyone worried that I'm giving Steve a hard time, we go back a long way - he even sent me a nice gift on one occasion - and he doesn't read this blog anyway :)
Anyone following the C-LAY-ton Kershaw system would have pocketed a modest 1.35 points last night as the eponymous laying system stopped its losing run at four. Unfortunately, the Unders winning run also came to an end after seven wins:
Finally, and it's an 'Oh dear', Martin (Tennis Trader) is at it again. Some of you may recall the Mulligan he took a month ago, writing after a trading loss:
I didn't count this loss to my profit & loss statement (exactly -100 Euro), because I will not do this approach any more. It's looking like an excuse, that's true. Probably I would count the profit if I could turn the trade in a winner. I am honest about this issue. You see, never believe a profit & loss blog ;-).
Indeed, and now he's at it again.
I will keep the KPI on the right side unchanged, because the mistake happened outside the strategies that I am testing at the moment.
Those of you who have followed this blog for a while will know that Martin (Brulati) quit trading back in April after (apparently) recognising that he had no edge in his chosen sport of tennis:
In the end only platforms like Betfair or betting companies make profit. There is no added value in trading sportsmarkets. If two people make a bet, one will win and the other one will lose. Over long term both will lose, because Betfair (and the other companies) takes the margin.
He wasn't quite right in his comment above (a small number of customers on Betfair do manage to make a long term profit - hence the need for the Premium Charges), but anyway, comments such as this one:
Just seconds after I lost the trade, I transferred a big part of my money back to my saving account. This lack of discipline was only possible, because there was too much cash at Betfair.
reveal that Martin self-admittedly doesn't have the discipline requited to be a successful trader:
Trading Psychology
The psychological aspect of trading is extremely important, and the reason for that is fairly simple: A trader is often darting in and out of stocks on short notice, and is forced to make quick decisions. To accomplish this, they need a certain presence of mind. They also, by extension, need discipline, so that they stick with previously established trading plans and know when to book profits and losses. Emotions simply can't get in the way.
His blog is not pleasant reading to be honest, (a train wreck waiting to happen), and in my humble opinion, Martin should focus on his day job, and walk away from betting / trading altogether.   


G said...

Good advice for Martin - doubt he'll listen though. I wonder if I should adjust my P & L figures when I have a loss due to indiscipline? Hmmm probably best not....

Brulati said...

Nobody force you to read my blog. ;-) In my opinion you should make a small step down of your big horse or how was the performance of your draw section? It's easy to be always negative against everybody and not have the same objectivity about the own results.