Nice post, IMO there is no better measure of a trader's performance than Profit or Loss/hour for a meaningful period of time.The problem I have with using Profit and Loss as a measure is that a pound is worth far more to a pauper than to a prince. It's a lot easier to make £10 an hour from trading with a bank of a thousand times that and a seven figure net worth than it is if you are unemployed and unemployable, with a net worth of peanuts and a bank of £100.
That's one reason why I don't like P and L blogs - they have no context. A profit (or a loss) on its own is meaningless, and even more meaningless when there's no clarification on the time consumed.
As a measure of pure trading ability, I stand by my assertion from last September that the best traders are those whose average win size is the same as, or greater, than his average loss size. Some esteemed traders offered their numbers, and the average win size from the informal survey seemed to be in the 80% to 90% range of the average loss. Bayes, well known to the Betfair Forum, wrote:
In tennis, my main trading sport, I win in about 60-65% of markets and my average win to average loss ratio is very close to 1. Four or five years ago this ratio would have been nearer 0.8 but I am much better nowadays at staying 'at market'.Mark Iverson's Cricket numbers were a very impressive 0.997 (Ave Win: £230.85, Ave Loss: £231.59). My own NFL numbers were not (0.729) but the NBA was better at 0.874.
Moving on, and as predicted here last week, the FBI are now investigating the Fantasy Sports business in the USA.
The New York Attorney General’s office has asked both companies for a raft of internal data including the win/loss records of players, algorithms that determine the fantasy pricing for athletes and details on their policies to prevent fraud.This article specifically mentions the issue of insiders trading:
DraftKings, as well as rival FanDuel, have acknowledged that their employees — many of whom regularly rank among the most consistent big winners — have played and won significant money on each other’s sites. In the wake of the scandal, they banned their employees from competing in any contests.Don't hold your breath that the Gambling Commission will be asking the same of Betfair any time soon, but the pressure may be heating up - someone is certainly carrying out some interesting research:
Betfair viewed every extra bet as good business. They would stop people having $10 from New York on a new account, but super-courtsiding boss Jonathan Gale has fired in billions of dollars worth and been waved through.A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money - Everett Dirksen