Saturday, 10 October 2015

UMPO

It's been a decent start to the UMPO system (Underdogs MLB Play-Off in case you were wondering) with underdogs triumphant in four of the first six qualifying matches so far. The lines in yellow are provisional on the prices, but I'm in the pleasing position where even a wipe-out over the weekend wouldn't take me into the red.

It seems that more than a few of you might be following me on this system with the price on the Mets crashing from a high of 2.94 to around 2.68 last night before rebounding a little at first pitch. It's always tempting to lay off and have a risk free bet when a price moves in your favour like that, but unless that was your intent (and good luck picking up on pre-game moves) I'd advise sticking with the game plan and letting the bet run.

The prices I use in my records are taken from a US web site and can usually be beaten. For example on last night's St Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs game, the prices were -107 (1.9346) and -103 (1.9709) which is why although there was 'technically' an underdog, the system requires its underdogs to have a less than 50% implied probability!

The New York Mets were up against Mr. Clayton Kershaw, (I may have mentioned his name here once or twice before), whose seven year contract and $30,714,286 million annual salary contrasts rather dramatically with the Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom's (left) one year, $556,875 deal. DeGrom was the National League Rookie of the Year last season, but how he, or anyone else for that matter, manages on such a pittance, I have no idea. Don't feel too bad for him though - when Free Agency rolls around , he should be able to pay off some of his higher interest credit cards and afford a hair cut - scruffy git.

Kershaw's record in play-off games is poor, with just three wins from his eight appearances, and on a losing run of four.
Laying Kershaw in Play-Off Games
The poor run extended to five as Kershaw was pulled in the seventh inning leaving the bases loaded and trailing 0:1. By the end of that half-inning, it was 0:3 and the Dodgers were done, although they did score one run. The Division Series are best of 5, and to state the obvious, lose the first game and you need to win three of the next four.

I'll update the UMPO results every few days. I'm sure some of you don't want a daily update, and quite sure some of you don't want any updates because you don't care about baseball, but the beauty of simple systems like this and the Bundeslayga are that they are low-risk and low-maintenance. There's no bet management required, no  need to watch the game itself - simply check the upcoming games each day, place your bet, and enjoy life.

No comments: