The Unknown Trader responded to yesterday's post saying:
I tend to agree with you on the use of P and L in blogs and that's why I committed myself on never using it in my own.
Nonetheless, if you compute a P and L/hour over a long time period (years or thousands of markets) some issues like initial bank size will be diluted. As so, a trading edge will take care of an initial small trading bank while the opposite situation also stands true: a huge trading bank will be gone if you don't have it. Either way, the inclusion of a time measure is very important when evaluating trading outcomes.There are indeed many ways to skin a cat, and if you have found a way that works for you, then stick with it. The mention of the Premium Charge is interesting too, as I'm sure many a successful trader has modified or added new strategies to mitigate these as much as possible. Green Is The New Black is a blog worth reading. I believe the writer is from Portugal where Betfair has recently stopped operating, so to fill up his spare time, the writer is now blogging. With eleven posts in August but just three in September and October combined, I hope this isn't a sign of waning interest already, but my award for "best post to date" goes to this one - Is there a blind obsession with statistics in the betting world?
About your measure, I think a win/loss ratio of 1 is a good rule of thumb, but there are a lot of ways to go to Rome which I don't categorize as better or worse. In fact, they are better or worse when it comes to Betfair Premium Charge, but that's another subject! The numbers you stated in your post are pretty impressive and maybe I'm wrong here but I think you could find similarly impressive ones from traders with different ratios, higher or lower. In the end, each to its own I guess!
Keep up the good work, it's great that you're more active again in your blog! By the way, your feedback (good or bad) on my blog would be highly valued, hope you get the chance to read it.
Certainly there is for some people who nonsensically think that previous match-ups from years back between clubs are relevant when assessing odds, or who think that there is some predictive value to be derived from a 32nd minute own goal on a Tuesday night in Grimsby, but if you are smart and logical, put some context around your data (all goals are not equal), then as many have shown, it is possible to gain an edge, at least for a short while.
As for the kind words about the blog, they are appreciated. As some of you know already, responsibilities at work increased this summer, but after nearly two months, I've grown into the job somewhat, and learned what is important, and more usefully to whom it can be delegated! The result is a little more free time, no travelling for a couple of weeks, and hence - a few more posts.
The Daily Fantasy Sports scandal continues to grow, if not explode. My US correspondent, Scott, pointed me to a long-read article in the New York Times which is worth the long read. Scott commented:
A very long piece of investigative journalism, but an interesting read.The US is an outlier on many issues the rest of the civilised world have long since settled. Fahrenheit should be retired, the death penalty is never justified, evolution is a fact, religion is silly, climate change is a fact, elections should go to the guy with the most votes (i.e. Al Gore), healthcare should be a right and placing a bet is a perfectly normal activity. On the same topic, Bossman Megarain writes:
The Pinnacle connection is surprising in that they would choose to exit the UK market due to a Gaming Commission tax increase, but on the other choose to get their hands dirty in the US market where they are breaking the law.
Still incredible that the US has not chosen to simple regulate and tax sports betting.
Your Blog continues to provide insight/thought provoking analysis.
We are all busy, gambling, but, the DFS saga, has peaked my interest, in that it seems the DFS win, by Artem Genchanok, was bet from Louisiana, - one of 5 states, that specifically prohibit, 'gambling by computer'.
I am v interested, how this pans out ..As it stands right now, Fantasy Sports is exempt from the 2006 law because it was considered a 'game of skill'. Back then though, the industry was a fraction of what it is now, and Fantasy Leagues ran for a season. Reducing the time span down to "Daily", and the element of chance is far higher, as almost everyone reading this will be only too aware of.
I do feel, with all the Federal involvement, Sports Betting, may be legal, in far more States, within - say 3 yrs, than I had previously thought.
As the New York Times article says, the Act was passed in a hurry, late at night, and wasn't debated. Now that there is so much attention on Fantasy Sports, it is likely that new legislation will be passed at some point. Either Fantasy Sports will now be considered gambling and also banned, or the opportunity will be seized to have an informed debate on the topic, accept the realities of the 21st century, and allow US citizens to decide for themselves how to spend their money, and provide a regulated environment to facilitate that activity. Time will tell, but there's a lot of money lobbying against opening sports betting up.
The four Divisional MLB Series are now done, and it wasn't a good round for the UMPO with the ROI% now in the red down by 7.74%.
At least the round ended with a win, and we move on to the best of 7 Championship Series where in the National League, the Chicago Cubs play the New York Mets, and in the American League the Toronto Blue Jays face the Kansas City Royals. It's a good year for teams in blue! The AL series starts tonight with the Royals home 'dogs, which as you can see above isn't a category that has had any success so far this play-offs with all four selections losing.
The Cubs won all seven regular season games v the Mets this season, while the Blue Jays had the edge 4:3 over the Royals with home sides winning 5 of the 7 games.