Sunday, 18 October 2015


As expected, Unknown Trader clarified his intriguing "particular characteristics" reference with these words:
Probably my comment sounded mysterious but what I was trying to say is that long-term wise you'll be better off if you can translate a pre-existent edge to one which allows more variance to kick in. On other words, you can have a profit of £100 in several ways but you'll be in a better position if you do it by losing £4900 while winning £5000 than by just doing the £100 alone.
For someone who is starting what I'm saying is not relevant at all but in the long run it can certainly have an impact.
Of course, having and maintaining an edge is already a big proposition let alone manipulate it to mimic these particular characteristics I was talking about.
As most readers will know, the most 'efficient' winners on Betfair are subject to a Premium Charge. It pays to be less efficient which is where the value in systems such as the Bundeslayga and UMPO lies. The steady drip-drip of profits from such systems helps to mitigate the charges incurred from the more glamorous profits that can be found from in-play trading.

One of the biggest complaints about the Premium Charges is the retroactive nature of them. Personally speaking, had I known from day one what the rules would be changed to in 2008 and again in 2012, my approach would certainly have been different, but whining won't change anything. It's clear that the changes were made with fast-finger court-siders (and former employees) in mind, but rather than simply ban such activities and accounts, a wider net was cast which unfortunately caught a lot of unintended victims, such as the likes of Mark Iverson, who over the years became something of an expert in cricket, darts and other niche sports:
However, as Betfair increased their premium charges the effort needed to sustain my income went up so the amount of available time I had to blog decreased.
Unfortunately board-siders curtailed my involvement with the oche in 2012 when I realised that too many players had access to either fast pictures or data I didn't have. If you're 10 seconds behind the action in that sport it's as good as a lifetime.
To suddenly hit such sharp-minded people with first 20% in charges, later increasing to 40%, 50% or 60% seems unnecessary and contrary to the concept of the exchange idea first created by Andrew Black and Ed Wray.

The decision by Betfair to take this approach is akin to Stock Exchanges allowing insider trading but charging 40% to 60% of profits in 'facilitation fees', while slapping the same charges on the likes of Warren Buffett, whose profits are generated by a more traditional long-term buy-and hold approach.

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