Sunday, 5 June 2016

Cubs, Hotties And F-L Bias

Since MLB went to a 162 game regular season in 1962*, only two teams have won more than 70% of their games.  The New York Yankees in 1998 won 114 games (70.4%) and the Seattle Mariners won 116 (71.6%) in 2001.

Pre-season favourites for the 2016 World Series were the Chicago Cubs, and they remain so (4.8 on Betfair) with a rather impressive winning percentage to date of 72.2% (39-15).

However, it's worth mentioning that the last time a National League team had the best regular season record and went on to win the World Series was in 1986 (New York Mets). Since then, only five teams with the best regular season record (all American League) have gone on to win the World Series The Chicago Cubs of course, play in the National League.

While backing the Cubs for the World Series may not offer any value, backing the Cubs so far this season is a profitable activity, +12.96 points from 54 games Straight Up, and +17.70 points on the Run Line. 

As I have written on this blog before, backing MLB shorties has become a winning strategy in recent years, with big profits in 2012, 2014 and 2015, and it's so far so good this season as the table below shows: 
Away (road)  teams have an impressive 8-1 record straight up this season, and this is no surprise as since the 2012 season, their record is 58-10 (85.3%) and +36.45 points. 

As I wrote last season, the conclusion that the favourite–longshot bias is found in reverse in baseball doesn't seem to be the case any longer. Don't tell anyone.

* In 1961, American League clubs played 162 games, while the National League played just 154 games.   

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