Sunday, 15 January 2017

Church On Sunday

Nenko Gachev, of The Church of Betting blog, commented on my NCAAF (College Football) post:

I have also noticed your reference to my post with some delay.

Just to clear things up: I follow the trend you have kindly shared with us and bet on it according to my own ability. Sometimes I would arbitrarily miss games or vary the spread. The t-test is based on my own results and ability to turn profit out of this strategy and not on the strategy itself. Hence why it only includes the bets I have made and does not take into account the long record that you have collected.
So with my post I did in no way mean to question the numbers you have reported. There are some faults in my betting that prevent me from unlocking the full potential of the trend. But since I just got started with it I am more than happy with the results. So thanks for sharing!
Nenko from The Church of Betting
Misunderstandings can easily arise when two people have different first languages, but if Nenko is concerned that I was in some way upset at his numbers, he is completely wrong. I produced my numbers simply because I have them, and for comparison purposes, not because I was in any way questioning Nenko's.

My results for a system will never be my actual results achieved. As with Nenko, and presumably anyone with a life, sometimes I miss bets for various reasons. Lines might move too close to the event start time, and I miss it, or conversely a placed bet becomes a non-qualifier as a parameter moves and it is no longer a qualifier. These things tend to balance out over time, so there's no point stressing over them.

It makes more sense for me to produce complete and verifiable results which should be of interest to everyone, rather my actual results which are of interest only to me, and heaven forbid they are better than the 'official' results! They are intended to highlight areas where markets appear to be inefficient. 

Anyway, thanks to Nenko for his willingness, albeit unnecessary, to clear up any misunderstandings, and thanks also for stating that he is "more than happy with the results", which is always nice to hear.

As I am writing this post, I received another comment, this one from SportsPicksSystem who asked:
Cassini, did you play that system, or just follow it? I am asking because I was wondering if it's easy to follow since the system is based on the spread. I don't know much about NCAAF market, especially if the spread can move a lot before game time.
As stated above, I played this system last season, but not consistently. It's one of the more difficult systems to follow exactly, because the spreads can indeed be volatile, and a probable qualifier on Friday night drifts out of range by Saturday, or vice versa. The NFL sibling system is a lot easier to closely follow - not only are the lines steadier, but more sportsbooks offer these games.

Continuing on from my last post in which I looked at the last four completed EL seasons 2012-16 and in particular the Draw price, I thought I might share that using the implied probability of the Home team can be a useful trigger for backing the Draw.

The Draw ROI% peaked at 22.3%, from 236 bets, when the HIP (Home Implied Probability) was between 30% and 39.99%. Up to 4.Jan.2017, this season's results have added another 6.18 point from 33 bets.     

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