Thursday, 26 January 2017

The Emperor And The Worm

A Tony Stephens commented. Now Tony Stephens is certainly not the rarest of names, but I do hope it's not the same Tony Stephens as the one above. 

"Just pick the winner whatever the price" is about as clueless a statement as you could find about betting, and as for not understanding the concept of betting exchanges, dear me. The basic idea is really quite simple, and it's being profitable that's more of a challenge. I'd suggest that anyone having trouble with understanding betting exchanges should probably stop right there.

And let's hope he's not the Tony Stephens below either:
Anyone working in a warehouse probably shouldn't be spending either his spare time or little money - that extra penny makes all the difference though...
...on gambling. 

Anyway, I'm sure it's another Tony Stephens who asked:
Could you explain why you like to blog about sports trading? If you know something that others don't why go through the "agro" of trying to prove it. If you manage to convince people you give away your edge or take mug money out of the market that you could exploit. If you don't convince people then you have wasted your time. Maybe hit counts help the ego more than realised profits?
A few points to address there, starting at the top - why do I like to blog about sports trading? 

For a start, writing is fun. I enjoy it; it's relaxing and writing about sports trading is particularly interesting in that there are so many topics, as evidenced by 2,238 posts in almost nine years, to write about. 

This blog is not solely about sports trading of course, as the heading makes clear:
...and related items of interest in the wide world of sports investing
That's a big world, and I write on other topics too as the mood takes me.

I'm not sure what Tony's next line is getting at:
If you know something that others don't why go through the "agro" of trying to prove it.
If the topic here is the recent one of how trading tennis from your home isn't a good idea, I'm presenting a logical explanation for why it's not a good idea. 

I'm trying to warn the vulnerable "warehouse workers" of this world, who might read somewhere that there is a fortune to be made, that in reality, trading tennis might not be the best idea for them. 

It's extraordinary claims that require extraordinary evidence, and the irresponsible claims of certain vendor bloggers that the novice tennis trader can simply jump into the Australian Open and make money is an extraordinary claim. 

I have yet to see any evidence to back that up, let alone extraordinary evidence. I'm simply saying the emperor has no clothes, and it's no "agro" to do so. 

I'm not a tennis trader, so pointing out what should be obvious doesn't hurt me at all. The interest that has been generated lately suggests my time hasn't been wasted. 
Seeing the hit counter climb is somewhat rewarding, but it means nothing in monetary terms. Writing for its own sake is a pleasure; that others read what I write is gratifying, but blogging is just a hobby.

Prabhat returned, asking:
So are you saying that other than the information edge from knowing the game state earlier, there is no edge at all in sports betting?
Apologies if I'm getting you wrong, but from what you said that necessarily follows, since all the data is visible in pretty much every major sport. Not agreeing or disagreeing for the moment, just trying to establish whether that's what you think.
Prabhat's question is probably for James, so next time he stops by, he can perhaps reply.

For my part, I'd say that sports trading and sports betting (bet and forget), are two different beasts, and if you trade in a market where court-siders are present, you are unlikely to be able to find an edge, because as stated previously, your ability to do this depends on the early-bird not seeing the worm. 

When it comes to sports "betting", I'd say choose your markets carefully.

James is right when he says:
You can analyse an up-coming match and place a bet on it but all the data is public so there is probably not going to be any edge.
However, not all markets are subjected to the same level of scrutiny, at least not yet.  

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